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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 53
The Belgium Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's oil and gas industry.
The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 6.10% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption averaged an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.61mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.66mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.90mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer. As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 10.9% growth. Production of an estimated 270bcm in 2009 should rise to 273bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 156bcm to some 200bcm by the end of the period. Belgium’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 3.99%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.78%.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, the publisher has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$69.53/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in August at almost US$82.30/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 31.7%. The gas-oil forecast is for an average price of US$69.69/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$92/bbl in December 2009. The full-year out-turn represents a 42.5% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$69.99/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$58.02/bbl, down 33.6% from the previous year’s level. Belgian real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 3.2% in 2009, compared with 1.0% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 1.5% in 2010-2014. Oil demand is expected to have declined in 2009, before recovering slowly to reach 830,000b/d by 2014. From an estimated 17.0bcm in 2009, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 17.9bcm by 2014, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 0.61%, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 820,000b/d in 2009 to 825,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 17.0bcm to 18.8bcm by 2019, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s Country Risk team, Belgium’s long-term political risk score is 74.7, compared with the Developed Markets average of 85.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 70.4, above the Developed Markets average of 70.1 and the global average of 53.5. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
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