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Germany Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 66
The Germany Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's oil and gas industry.
The latest Germany Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 17.53% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a contribution of just 1.08% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption averaged an estimated 13.28mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to recover to around 13.61mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.97mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 4.66mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.71mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2009, net crude imports were an estimated 8.62mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.90mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK becoming a net importer. As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2009 consumed an estimated 426bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 473bcm targeted for 2014, representing 10.9% growth. Production of an estimated 270bcm in 2009 should rise to 273bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2009 level of 156bcm to some 200bcm by the end of the period. Germany’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 19.0%, while it accounted for 4.88% of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.67%, with a 4.22% share of production.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$69.53/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in August at almost US$82.30/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 31.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$69.69/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$92/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 42.5% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$69.99/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$58.02/bbl, down 33.6% from the previous year’s level. German real GDP is forecast by BMI to have fallen by 4.8% in 2009, compared with growth of 1.3% in 2008. We are assuming 1.6% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Our forecast is for minimal oil demand growth to 2014, with end-period consumption at no more than 2.39mn b/d after declining demand in 2008/09. Gas consumption is now 24% of primary energy demand, accounting for 11% of power generation supply. Our estimate is for gas demand to rise from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 93bcm by 2014. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2009 to 11.5bcm over the period.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in German oil and gas liquids consumption of 5.46%, with volumes peaking at 2.41mn b/d in 2010-13, then heading lower to 2.27mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Production is set to fall from an estimated 55,000b/d to just 25,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 81bcm to a peak of 93bcm by 2013/2014, before slipping back to 89bcm by 2019. Imports are expected to peak at 81.5bcm in 2014, in the form of pipeline volumes. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s Country Risk team, Germany’s long-term political risk score is 85.8, compared with the Developed Markets average of 85.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 74.4, above the Developed Markets average of 70.1 and above the global average of 53.5. Germany has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is a small upstream oil and gas segment, with international oil company (IOC) and local company involvement. Downstream oil features a mixture of IOCs and domestic companies, while gas and electricity interests remain in largely German (non-state) hands.
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