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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 76
The Canada Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's oil and gas industry.
The new Canada Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 10.56% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 34.70% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption was an estimated 20.76mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2009. It is set to rise to around 22.19mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production in 2009 averaged an estimated 10.29mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.95mn b/d by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 11.24mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.47mn b/d in 2009.
In terms of natural gas, North America consumed an estimated 742.0bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 804.3bcm targeted for 2014, representing 8.4% growth. Estimated production of 748.0bcm in 2009 should ease to 723.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 81.3bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 13.07%, while it contributed 24.06% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 13.18%, with 25.31% of regional supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$69.53/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in August at almost US$82.30/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 31.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$69.69/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$92/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 42.5% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$69.99/bbl, compared to US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$58.02/bbl, down 33.6% from the previous year’s level.
Canadian real GDP is forecast by BMI to have fallen by 2.5% in 2009, compared with growth of 0.4% in 2008. We are assuming 2.8% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.26mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.34mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.80mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) says it expects oil sands production of 2.2mn b/d by 2015 under its best case scenario.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 26.18%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.17mn b/d in 2009 to 4.0mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to increase by just 1.83%, exports should rise from an estimated 0.95mn b/d to 1.73mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should fall from the estimated 2009 level of 180bcm to 165bcm in 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 97bcm to 113bcm, leaving net exports falling to 52bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s Country Risk team, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 94.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 85.8 and the global average of 63.2. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 72.3, above the Developed Markets average of 70.1 and the global average of 53.5. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor agreed to acquire for CAD19.6bn (US$15.9bn) in March 2009.
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