- Language: English
- 42 Pages
- Published: April 2013
- Region: Africa, Middle East
1Q10 Egypt Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Egypt will have 101 Million Mobile Subscriber Accounts in 2014 with Market Share of Etisalat Rising to 21.2%
- Published: March 2010
- Region: Egypt
- 118 Pages
- IE Market Research Corp
Mobile Operator Forecast on Egypt provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Egypt’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Egypt include: The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil), Vodafone Group Plc, and Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
ECMS - The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil)
Vodafone Group Plc
Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation) (For Etisalat, only the subscriber data and the revenue data are available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Subscriber growth in Egypt's wireless market remains strong
- +37.3% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009
ARPUs continue declining in Egypt's mobile operator space
- -16.6% industry average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing
- The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +4.2% in 3Q.2009
EBITDA declined at both ECMS and Vodafone in the latest quarter
- -3.8% industry-average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Egypt to reach 101.7 million in 2014
- All of the major operators are offering SIM cards to mobile subscribers in Egypt, and this causes a significant increase in subscriber numbers. We now forecast that total wireless subscribers in Egypt will increase from about 60 million in 2009 to 101.7 million in 2014.
- ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Egypt. Our model predicts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s number of subscribers will increase from 25 million in 2009 to 42 million in 2014.
- We also expect that, by the end of 2014, Vodafone will have 37.8 million subscribers and Etisalat will have 21.5 million subscribers.
Vodafone and ECMS (Mobinil) will be losing market shares to Etisalat over the next five years
- Our model predicts that Etisalat's subscriber market share will increase from 18% in 2009 to 21.2% in 2014.
- On the other hand, the largest two operators will be losing subscriber market shares over the next several years. We expect that ECMS (Mobinil)'s share will decrease to 41.6% and Vodafone's share will decrease to 37.2% by the end of 2014.
ARPUs in Egypt will be stabilizing from 2010 to 2014
- Our forecasting model predicts that Vodafone's monthly ARPU level will be stable at approximately EGP 45 over the next several years.
- Also, we forecast that ECMS (Mobinil)'s ARPU declines will not be as rapid as in the previous few years. Our model forecasts that ECMS (Mobinil)'s monthly ARPU will be about EGP 35 in 2014 (down from about EGP 40 in 2009).
ECMS (Mobinil) will continue to enjoy higher profitability than Vodafone over the next five years
- We forecast that ECMS (Mobinil)'s EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain in the range of 47% - 48% over the next several years.
- On the other hand, we expect that Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be declining over the forecast period to reach 38.7% in 2014.
- ECMS - The Egyptian Company for Mobile Services (Mobinil)
- Vodafone Group Plc
- Etisalat (Emirates Telecommunications Corporation)