1Q10 Peru Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Peru will have 29.5 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Movistar Peru Taking Market Share of 54.3%
- ID: 1207275
- March 2010
- Region: Peru
- 118 Pages
- IE Market Research
Mobile Operator Forecast on Peru provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Peruvian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Peru include: Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.), Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.), BellSouth, and Nextel del Perú S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.)
Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
Nextel del Perú S.A.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
* Available only for Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) and Nextel del Perú S.A.
** Available only for Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.) and Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)
*** Available only for Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.)
Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Peru, but growth is slowing down
- +14.0% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009
ARPU growth levels continue falling across operators in Peru
- Industry average ARPU growth of -9.8% in 3Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth continues at Movistar Peru and Claro
- +15.6% industry-average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Peru to reach 29.5 million in 2014
- The wireless penetration rate in Peru was still at 68% in 3Q.2009, and we think that there is significant growth potential in Peru's wireless market. We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Peru will increase from 20 million in 2009 to 29.5 million in 2014.
- Movistar Peru will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the country. We expect that Movistar Peru's subscriber accounts will increase from 11.3 million in 2009 to 16 million in 2014.
- We also forecast that Claro will have 11.7 million subscribers and Nextel will have 1.76 million subscribers by the end of 2014.
Movistar Peru's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Movistar's market share in Peru will decline from 56% in 2009 to 54.3% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we expect that Nextel's market share will be increasing from 4.2% in 2009 to 6.0% in 2014.
- We forecast that Claro's market share will remain at approximately 40% over the next five years.
We expect ARPU declines to continue in Peru from 2010 to 2014
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in Peru will fall from approximately PEN 25 in 2009 to PEN 22.80 in 2014.
- Although Nextel will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in the country, we expect that its ARPU level will still decline from PEN 85 in 2009 to PEN 62 in 2014.
- According to our model, ARPU levels at Movistar Peru and Claro will also be declining over the next several years to reach PEN 20.10 and PEN 20.63, respectively in 2014.
Movistar Peru will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than Claro and Nextel
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 34.5% in 2009 to 39.2% in 2014.
- We expect that EBITDA margins at Movistar Peru will remain higher than EBITDA margins at Claro and Nextel over the next several years. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at Movistar Peru, Claro, and Nextel will be 42.2%, 39.1%, and 18.7% respectively in 2014.