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Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 75
Business Monitor International's Kenya Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kenya's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
During 2009, pharmaceutical sales in Kenya reached a value of KES17.92bn, representing a growth of 12.11% in local currency terms. However, as a result of the weakening Kenyan shilling, drug market growth in US dollar terms remained comparatively low (+1.37%) and reached a value of US$0.233bn. BMI calculates that in 2010, the country’s drug market will experience double-digit growth in local currency terms as well as US dollar terms as a result of a more favourable exchange rate. By 2014, BMI believes that the Kenyan drug market will reach a value of KES32.12bn (US$513mn), equating to a CAGR of 12.38% in local currency terms and 17.15% in US dollar terms in the 2009-2014 forecast period. By 2019, BMI expects the pharmaceutical market to be worth KES52.65bn (US$920mn), a 2009- 2019 CAGR of 11.38% in Kenyan shilling terms and 14.74% in US dollar terms. BMI believe that the eventual strengthening of the Kenyan shilling and the resultant rapid expansion of the pharmaceutical market in US dollar terms will be of interest to foreign drugmakers. BMI’s Country Risk Team forecasts the exchange rate to drop from KES77.04/US$ in 2009 to KES62.58/US$ by 2014, and further to KES57.25/US$ by 2019.
In BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for Q210, Kenya has maintained its 16th place in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Kenya is therefore above only Zimbabwe, and below Algeria and Nigeria. Globally, Kenya is ranked 70th of the 71 markets in BMI’s coverage universe. A sizeable counterfeiting industry, poor healthcare funding, corruption, regulatory environment deficiencies and a number of other issues will conspire to keep Kenya in a similarly lowly position in the MEA matrix over the coming months. Nevertheless, in comparison with many other African markets, most of which are not surveyed by BMI, Kenya offers more commercial promise and a more stable overall business environment. In January 2010, it was revealed that the Kenyan government is to implement a policy making subscription to the country’s citizens National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) mandatory if any medical services from hospitals are to be received. The much-delayed new NHIF is to be launched in early 2010, according to the Minister of Medical Services. At present 1.6mn Kenyans are covered by the NHIF (a figure which increases to 9.5mn when including dependants), while around 400,000 more have private medical insurance. This leaves 70% of the population without any form of health insurance. BMI welcomes the government’s focus on ensuring its citizens have adequate access to healthcare services via subscription to the NHIF.
In company news January 2010 saw GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announce that it would reduce the price of two prescription antibiotics – Augmentin (amoxicillin clavulanate), by 40%, and Zinnat (cefuroxime), by 30%, as a result of price pressures from medical practitioners and the government as well as competition from generic drugs. The two prescription drugs represent 50% of GSK Kenya’s turnover.
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