Bulgaria Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, February 2010, Pages: 44
The Bulgaria Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's retail industry.
The Q210 BMI Bulgaria Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales are expected to grow from an estimated BGN27.03bn (US$19.63bn) in 2009 to BGN34.15bn (US$17.79bn) by 2014. Key factors behind retail market expansion include rising disposable incomes and Bulgarians seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains. EU membership gained at the start of 2007 and a substantial amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 3.5%, in local currency terms, between 2009 and 2014.
Bulgaria’s nominal GDP in 2009 was US$47.33bn, with a decline of 5.3% for the year expected to translate into marginal growth of 0.4% in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 1.3% is forecast by BMI between 2009 and 2014. Although the population is predicted to decrease slightly, from 7.5mn in 2009 to an estimated 7.4mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is expected to increase from US$5,305 US$6,725 over the same period.
The growth in the overall retail market will be driven in large part by a growing urban population with higher disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to the UN Population Division, the urban population in Bulgaria is expected to grow from 70.5% of the total in 2005 to 72.2% by 2010, and to more than 78.0% by 2030. Consumer spending per capita of the middle 60% of the Bulgarian population is forecast by the World Bank to rise from US$1,225 in 2000 to US$5,941 in 2012. Retail sectors that are likely to have substantial growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with BMI estimating that sales will rise by 36%, from an estimated US$1.32bn in 2009 to US$1.79bn by 2014. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase by nearly 15%, from an estimated US$0.29bn in 2009 to US$0.33bn by the end of the forecast period. Automotive sales are predicted to increase from an estimated US$2.27bn in 2009 to US$2.54bn by 2014.
Assuming an unchanged market share, BMI also estimates that furnishing sales will rise by 26% over the forecast period. In 2008, the Austrian home improvement retailer bauMax opened Bulgaria’s biggest DIY hypermarket in Plovdiv. According to press reports, the company plans to open 15 more outlets at a cost of more than EUR150mn (US$194mn) over the next five years.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,067bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,135bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Bulgaria, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.8% is expected to decline to 0.9% by 2014.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Retail Business Environment SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales By Sector, 2009e
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Bulgaria – Macroeonomic Activity, 2006-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Regional Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Trends
Business Environment Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Business Environment Ratings
Table: CEE Retail Business Environment Ratings
Bulgaria’s Retail Rating
Limits to Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Bulgaria Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria MGR Sales By Format, 2006-2014 (US$bn)
Table: Bulgaria Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 And 2018 (%)
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Bulgaria Consumer Electronics SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
Industry Developments
Automotives
Bulgaria Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Bulgaria Autos Sales And Production, 2008-2014
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
Product Samples
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