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Czech Republic Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 53
The Czech Republic Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Czech Republic's retail industry.
The Q210 BMI Czech Republic Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by nearly 35% during the forecast period, from an estimated US$48.35bn in 2009 to US$65.16bn by 2014. Rising disposable incomes, easier access to credit, the increasing number of large retail outlets and shopping centres and increasing car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) continue to drive growth, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 4.1% over the forecast period.
The Czech Republic’s nominal GDP in 2009 was an estimated US$186.55bn, a decline of 3.8%, and is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2010 as the economy slowly improves. Average annual GDP growth of 2.0% is predicted by BMI for 2009-2014. The population is expected to remain static, at 10.4mn, throughout the forecast period, but GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 40.5% by 2014, reaching US$25,282. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$11,117 in 2009 to US$15,527 by 2014.
Food expenditure as a percentage of GDP in the Czech Republic is expected to increase slightly, from an estimated 4.3% in 2009 to 5.1% in 2014.
BMI data suggest that over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales will grow by more than 30%, from an estimated US$0.74bn in 2009 to US$0.96bn by the end of the forecast period. Automotives sales will increase by 7%, from an estimated US$13.47bn in 2009 to US$14.41bn by 2014. Other retail sectors that are likely to achieve substantial growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, which BMI predicts will expand by nearly 22%, from an estimated US$4.38bn in 2009 to US$5.33bn by 2014.
Based on the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO)’s ‘Money Income and Expenditures per Average Household’ data, BMI estimates that retail sales of furnishings amounted to US$5.27bn in 2009 and should increase to US$7.10bn by 2014. Sales of clothing and footwear are forecast to rise from an estimated US$3.43bn in 2009 to US$4.62bn by the end of the forecast period.
According to UN data, in 2005 just under 37% of the Czech population was in the 20-44 age range. This is forecast to dip slightly, to 36%, by 2010 but will continue to account for a key element of retail spending. The proportion of the population classified by the UN as economically active was 71.2% in 2005 and it should still be around this level in 2010.
The unemployment rate was an estimated 8.5% in 2009 as a result of the global economic slowdown. BMI forecasts that it will begin to decline in 2010 and reach 5.5% at the end of the forecast period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,067bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,135bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For the Czech Republic, the estimated 2009 market share of 4.5% is expected to decline to 3.2% by 2014.
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