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Australia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 103
Australia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from forecasts that the country will account for 3.26% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 6.27% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2013 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) , in 2009 and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Australias share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 5.05%, while its share of production is put at 11.76%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.92%, with the country accounting for 12.92% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher has assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, BMI expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. BMI are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Australian real GDP is now forecast to have risen by just 0.3% in 2009, compared with growth of 2.3% in 2008. BMI are now assuming average annual GDP growth of 3.0% between 2010 and 2014. There is no state oil industry, but a group of domestic and leading international companies is investing heavily in gas production and exports to help slow the rate of decline in Australias oil output. BMI are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 650,000b/d in 2011 then falling to 550,000b/d by 2014. Consumption is forecast to increase by less than 1.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 953,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 403,000b/d by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019, BMI are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 30.09%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011 at 650,000b/d, before falling steadily to 395,000b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 6.16%, with growth slowing to an assumed 0.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 977,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 45bcm in 2009 to a possible 95bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 45.88%, this provides export potential rising from an estimated 21.5bcm to 60.7bcm, all in the form of LNG. Details of the long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2019.
Australia still leads the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world class regulatory structure and solid risk environment proving to be a winning combination. However, the 11-point gap between it and second-placed India flatters Australia as it is due largely to the poorer country risk environment in the south Asian country. Indeed, given the greater potential for more rapid growth in India, the gap should narrow over the medium term, although it is unlikely to close until the countrys Country Risk environment improves.
Australia is somewhat further down the league table in the Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It now takes a share of fourth place out of the 15 states, alongside Japan, but could slip down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region.
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