|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
China Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 132
China Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's oil and gas industry.
The latest China Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 35.99% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 45.50% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but this implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. China’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 18.19%, while its share of production was 21.09%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 20.20%, with the country accounting for 19.00% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Chinese GDP growth in 2009 is assumed to have been 8.1%, down from 9.0% in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth in 2010-2014 of 7.9%. While partly privatised, the oil and gas industry remains under state control with PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC charged with maintaining domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids output of no more than 3.99mn b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 4.02mn b/d in 2010. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 25.21% in 2009-2014, implying demand of 10.52mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 6.53mn b/d by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019 we are forecasting a decrease in Chinese oil production of 3.13%. Crude volumes will peak in 2013 at 4.15mn b/d, then fall steadily to 3.71mn b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 46.57%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum by the end of the period and the country using 12.31mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 80.7bcm in 2009 to a possible 121.7bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 108%, this provides an import requirement rising to 54.6bcm – increasingly in the form of LNG. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found to the rear of this report, which provides regional and country specific projections.
China now ranks sixth in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating (just behind Papua New Guinea), with a strong resource position being countered by a less impressive regulatory structure and substantial state involvement. The risk environment is also less attractive than for many Asian peers. Over the medium to long term, China has the capability to progress further up the rankings and claim a higher slot in the regional league table. The country is ranked outright first ahead of India in the updated Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It has established a three-point lead over India, and is five points clear of third-placed Singapore.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
China Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
China Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
|
|
|
|
