|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 103
The latest Indonesia Oil & Gas Report from the forecasts that the country will account for 4.38% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 11.00% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009 and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 8.16%, while its share of production is put at 18.82%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.61%, with the country accounting for 15.51% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Indonesian real GDP growth is assumed to have been 4.3% in 2009, down from 6.1% in 2008. We foresee average annual growth of 5.3% in 2010-2014. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 965,000b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 1.02mnb/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by 2.0- 2.5% per annum to 2014. Our estimates imply demand of 1.28mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 316,000b/d by 2014. Gas production, rising to an estimated 84bcm by 2014, should provide end-period export potential of 37.1bcm, with supply risk on the downside.
Between 2009 and 2019 we are forecasting a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 17.77%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 810,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 22.49%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.42mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 72bcm in 2009 to a peak of 89bcm by 2012, before slipping back to 87bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 65.14%, this provides an export capability peaking at 46.0bcm in 2012, before falling to 24.2bcm by 2019, largely in the form of LNG. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Indonesia now ranks equal ninth with Thailand in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves to-production ratio (RPR) and extensive state involvement. The country sits comfortably ahead of Japan, and three points behind Pakistan, with little chance of a major change in position during the coming quarters. The country still ranks 11th in the updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its low level of retail site intensity, refinery capacity expansion plans and oil and gas demand growth outlook. It is just ahead of Hong Kong, and should be able to keep the smaller state at bay.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Indonesia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Australia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
