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Japan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 80
Japan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's oil and gas industry.
The latest Japan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 14.03% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing significantly to regional supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is in thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Japans share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 19.86%, while it provides no meaningful share of production. By 2014, it is expected to be consuming 16.41% of the regions gas.
For 2009 as a whole, BMI have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, BMI expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. BMI are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Japanese real GDP is assumed to have shrunk by 5.5% in 2009, against estimated contraction of 0.7% in 2008. BMI foresee average annual growth of 1.4% in 2010-2014. There is little domestic upstream activity, with local state and private firms concentrating on international exploration efforts. The outlook for domestic oil and gas production therefore remains poor. Oil consumption is forecast to fall between 2009 and 2014, implying demand of 4.10mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country should also be consuming 101bcm of gas by 2014, all of which will be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Between 2009 and 2019, BMI are forecasting a reduction in Japanese oil consumption of 7.22%, with demand slipping steadily to the end of the period and the country using 4.05mn b/d by 2019. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 92.5bcm in 2009 to a possible 106.3bcm by 2019. All of Japans gas will continue to be imported in the form of LNG. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found to the rear of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Japan now ranks 11th ahead of Singapore and Hong Kong in the updated and expanded Upstream Business Environment Rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which counter the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country now ranks equal fourth with Australia in the updated Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, increasing gas demand and the established modern refining capability. However, it is held back by a high level of retail site intensity and a poor oil demand growth outlook.
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