|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 98
Pakistan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's oil and gas industry.
The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 1.45% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.78% of its supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but this implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Pakistan’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 7.84%, while its share of production is put at 9.54%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.16%, with the country accounting for 7.75% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl, compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Pakistan’s real GDP growth in 2009 is assumed to have been 2.0%, down from 4.1% in 2008. In 2010-2014, average annual growth is put at 2.9%. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of no more than 68,000b/d by 2014, with the country able to pump an estimated 80,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 3.5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 423,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 355,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 36.5bcm in 2009 to 44.1bcm by 2014, requiring imports of at least 2.1bcm.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Pakistan oil production of 33.33%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 50,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 30.49%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 485,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 36.5bcm in 2009 to a possible 47.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 49.32%, this will require imports rising to 7.5bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Pakistan now ranks eighth, between the Philippines and Thailand, in the updated and expanded Upstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average output growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country now sits three points ahead of Thailand, and should be able to keep it at bay over the medium term. Pakistan ranks equal ninth, alongside Vietnam, in the Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
|
|
|
|
