|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 95
Philippines Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippines' oil and gas industry.
The latest Philippines Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.11% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.76% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 12.99mn b/d. This total rose to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but this implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. The Philippines’ estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 0.84%, while its share of production was 1.02%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.86%, with the country accounting for 0.92% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
The Philippines’ real GDP growth in 2009 is assumed to have been 0.8%, down from 3.8% in 2008. We are assuming annual average growth of 4.1% in 2010-2014. There is international oil company (IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 70,000b/d by 2012/13, with the country pumping an estimated 60,000b/d in 2010. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2014, implying end-period demand of 325,000b/d. The import requirement would therefore be about 258,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.4bcm in 2009 to 5.3bcm by 2014, with imports required by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Philippines oil production of 14.24%, with crude volumes peaking at 70,000b/d in 2012/2013 before falling steadily to 51,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 31.78%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 369,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from around 3.4bcm in 2009 to a possible 8.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 164.71%, this will require up to 1.0bcm of imports. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
The Philippines now ranks seventh in the updated and expanded Upstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting a reasonable resource position and a better-than-average output growth outlook. The country sits just behind China and ahead of Pakistan. The country now ranks equal sixth with South Korea in our Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its modest refinery capacity expansion plans, reasonable oil and gas demand growth outlook and relatively low level of retail site intensity.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Philippines Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
South Korea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Japan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Denmark Oil and Gas Report Q3 2010
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
