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Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 84
Singapore Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's oil and gas industry.
The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from the forecasts that the country will account for 3.71% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing to supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This had risen to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but this implies net imports falling from around 83bcm to 74bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Singapore’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 1.82%, and market share is expected to rise to 2.06% by 2014. There is no gas production in Singapore. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, the authors are forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Singapore’s real GDP decline in 2009 is assumed to have been 2.3%, compared with growth of 1.1% in 2008. We expect average annual 4.4% growth in 2010-2014. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 1.09mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 8.5bcm in 2009 to 12.7bcm by 2014. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Singapore’s domestic oil consumption from 947,000b/d to 1.26mn b/d (+33.09%), with the island’s refining capacity rising from 1.26mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 8.5bcm in 2009 to a possible 18.2bcm by 2019, driven by power generation requirements. LNG imports are expected to commence in 2013 and reach 5.0bcm per annum through the initial import terminal. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found later in this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Singapore now ranks equal 12th (alongside Hong Kong) in the updated and expanded Upstream Business Environment Rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country sits ahead of South Korea and well clear of bottom-placed Taiwan in the upstream league table. The country now ranks third, ahead of Japan and Australia, in the updated Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is now two points behind India and two points clear of Australia and Korea, and looks set to retain its current position.
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