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Serbia Food and Drink Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 84
Serbia Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's food and drink industry.
We have upwardly revised the value of Serbia’s food consumption in 2009, which we now expect increased by an estimated 2.5% in local currency terms to RSD635.7bn (US$10.1bn). Over the forecast period through to 2014, the value is projected to continue developing at a modest pace of around 17.2%, which translates into low single-digit annual growth rates. Consequently – despite a number of positive economic, political and social indicators, including the positive GDP growth change in 2009 – Serbia is viewed as one of the least promising markets in the updated Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings (BER) for Q210. The country remains placed in 12th position out of the 15 markets included in the emerging Europe regional matrix.
On a more positive note for Serbia, its trade balance remains firmly in the positive territory. In fact, the balance is expected to continue shifting further towards exports, at a rate of over 31% between 2009 and 2014, as measured in local currency terms. The figures compiled in October 2009 by the Serbian Association of Agricultural Journalists (AGROPRESS) show that the country’s agriculture alone posted a US$320mn trade surplus, buoyed by the strong performance of raspberry, plum brandy, ajvar (red pepper relish) and meat in particular. The president of AGROPRESS urged Serbian exporters to focus on the EU markets, Russia, the US as well as non-EU member states in the coming years.
Additionally, foreign mass grocery retail (MGR) players continue to show interest in Serbia. In December 2009, Croatian distributor Gastro Grupa, which supplies the domestic hotel, restaurant and catering industry, announced plans to expand its business in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia in 2010. The company is exploiting the fact that spending on food is the largest proportion of overall consumer spending in Serbia, where domestic consumption in recent years has been fuelled by the increase in wages and the expansion of credit. Around the same time, local press reported that Greek retailer Veropoulos is to invest EUR120mn in Serbia over the next five years, with a view to increasing the number of its stores to twenty. Veropoulos therefore seems unperturbed by the statistics showing that the number of shoppers in the hypermarket format fell over the recent months.
On the wider economic and political fronts, we welcome the news that the country’s application to the EU was formalised in late December 2009, but caution of many obstacles, in particular the emotive issues of ongoing international court cases over the status of Kosovo and the trials of alleged war criminals from the conflict in Bosnia in the 1990s. Still, progress cannot be denied, nor can the fact that Serbia’s economy officially escaped from recession in Q309. According to latest data from the statistical office, real GDP expanded by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, with the 'Agriculture' component being one of the key factors helping to slow the pace of decline in Q309, having expanded by 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). In contrast, the 'Manufacturing' and 'Wholesale and Retail Trade' components contracted by 14.1% y-o-y and 8.6% in Q309 respectively, as consumer prices continued to suffer.
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