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Croatia Insurance Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 58
The Croatia Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in several respects. In the analysis of competitive conditions, the author provides a much more comprehensive ranking of insurance companies in the major segments from the point of view of the organisation that is providing the data (almost always the national insurance regulator or the national insurance trade association). In Croatia, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in H109, in terms of gross written premiums written, were CROATIA Insurance, Euroherc and Allianz Zagreb, with 40.9%, 14.4% and 9.4% of the market respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in H109 were the Vienna Insurance Group’s companies, including Kvaerner, Erste Osiguranje, Cosmopolitan and Helios, with market share of 18.1% for the group; followed by CROATIA and Allianz Zagreb, whose market shares were 14.5% and 13.5% respectively. Over time, the author hopes to derive insights from observing how market shares change. The author emphasises, though, that a decline in share of gross written premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.
In this report, the author also provides a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Croatia, for instance, the largest non-life lines in 2008 were compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL), motor vehicle (CASCO) and personal accident insurance. These accounted for 40.6%, 14% and 7.6% respectively of total non-life premiums. Over time, the author should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to the forecasting process. Writing in January 2010, the author has been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. The author has generally been able to use data published in 2009 to adjust the forecasts for the year as a whole. The author has also extended the forecasts out to 2014. The author forecasts total premiums in 2009 of HRK9,256mn, which includes non-life premiums of HRK6,797mn and life premiums of HRK2,459mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be HRK21,931mn, HRK13,456mn and HRK8,475mn respectively. In terms of the key drivers that underpin the forecasts, the author expects non-life penetration to rise from 2.30% in 2009 to 3.31% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$106 per capita to US$332.
BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for Croatia is 54.8 out of 100.
This quarter, the author includes a discussion of developments within regional markets, on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. In Croatia, fire and diversified risks, liability insurance and other lines have been growing in line with regional expansion and life insurance, a segment with mixed results region-wide, has risen slightly in Croatia.
Croatia’s Insurance Sector In 2009 And 2010 In its report for the first nine months of 2009, CROATIA Insurance, the former state-owned monopoly that is by far the largest domestic insurance company, described the insurance industry as ‘stagnant’. The main problem was downward pressure on premiums. While 2009 may have been disappointing for CROATIA, the overall industry performed respectably in relation to its peers elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).
Figures published by the industry regulator, the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency (HANFA), show that total non-life premiums in Croatia in the first nine months of 2009 came to HRK5,485mn, a decline of 1.7% year-on-year (y-o-y). Life premiums were HRK1,750mn, down by 3.2% y-o-y. Unlike in countries nearby, such as Greece and Bulgaria, non-life premiums were not given a significant boost by growth in CMTPL business. CMTPL premiums were virtually unchanged at HRK2,230mn. CASCO premiums were, at HRK777mn, 13% lower y-o-y, although this was offset by higher premiums in many other lines. Despite the recession, fire insurance premiums increased by about 8% y-o-y to HRK499mn. Premiums across all kinds of life insurance were unchanged. CROATIA reported that its non-life premiums fell by 5.3% y-o-y to HRK2,493mn in the first nine months of 2009, while life premiums dropped by 1.8% y-o-y to HRK254mn. The company lost market share in the non-life segment, but gained ground marginally in the life segment. Gross profits were 36.2% higher than in 9M08 at HRK96.6mn. Euroherc, Croatia’s second largest insurer, reported that its total revenues rose by 3.2% y-o-y to HRK825.7mn. Its net profits rose by 8.6% to HRK49.4mn. Vienna Insurance Group, whose companies in Croatia account for 18% of life premiums, said that it achieved double-digit growth in the segment in 9M09.
Issues To Watch
- CROATIA Insurance’s Distribution Deals In Q309, the CROATIA reached an agreement with Croatian Post and the Financial Agency (FINA) to sell its products through their branches. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on the insurer’s market share.
- Contagion In Bond Markets The resilience of Croatia’s economy and insurance companies was reflected in the performance of both in the first three quarters of 2009. Volatility in bond markets elsewhere in CEE, which affects perceptions of Croatian bonds, could be a major challenge in coming months. Pricing Of Insurance Products
- Unlike in other CEE markets, the burden of adjustment has been felt through pricing rather than volume. Unless there is a clear sign of stabilisation in pricing in Q110, the author may have to trim the forecasts for premiums in 2010 and 2011.
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