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Chile Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 51
Chile Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's retail industry.
The Q210 Chile Retail report forecasts the country’s retail sales will grow from approximately US$45bn in 2009 to more than US$78bn in 2014. High consumer spending power, well developed physical infrastructure and a business-friendly regulatory environment are key factors behind the forecast growth in Chilean retail sales.
Chile’s nominal GDP was US$159.16bn in 2009, with 2009’s decline of 1.2% expected to turn into growth of 5.0% in 2010 as the economy recovers. Average annual GDP growth of 2.9% is forecast by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 17.1mn in 2009 to an estimated 18.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 54.8% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$14,429. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,685 in 2009 to US$10,761 by 2014.
In 2005, 66.4% of the Chilean population was described by the UN Population Division as economically active, with 37.5% in the crucial 20-44 age range, which is vital for retail sales. The majority of Chileans live in urban areas (87.7%), according to UN data, with 40% of the population living in the Santiago metropolitan area alone. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached more than 90%, with 37.3% in the 20-44 age band and 68.6% of the population expected to be active.
Chile’s youth population is driving demand for consumer goods, with 3.34% of the household budget being spent on clothes in 2007, according to Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE). This was the highest spending category after cars, rent and public transport.
Retail sub-sectors that are expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales forecast to rise from US$16.71bn in 2009 to US$28.80bn by 2014. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast by BMI to increase from US$0.21bn in 2009 to US$0.34bn befor the end of the period, up by 65%, while automotives sales are forecast to rise by 68% to an estimated US$3.21bn by 2014. Consumer electronics sales are forecast to rise by 42%, from US$2.00bn in 2009 to US$2.83bn by 2014.
Foreign travel and tourists have stimulated increasingly consumerist attitudes and consumption in recent years, with revenue from foreign tourists rising by 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the peak month of January 2009, and domestic tourism revenues up by 8% y-o-y.
Despite the difficult economic environment in 2009, leading department store operator Falabella s agreed to develop new shopping malls with its smaller rival Ripley.
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