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Thailand Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 100
Business Monitor International's Thailand Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's oil and gas industry.
BMI’s latest Thailand Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 2.89% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 2.62% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 25.63mn b/d in 2009. It should average 26.13mn b/d in 2010before increasing to around 29.23mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 8.46mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.77mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly as demand growth outstrips the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 17.17mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 20.46mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 466bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009 and demand of 616bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 383bcm in 2009 should reach 542bcm in 2014, but implies net imports will fall from around 83bcm to 74bcm due to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Thailand’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 7.73%, while its share of production was 7.58%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.13%, with the country accounting for 6.46% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, BMI have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). They expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price in 2010, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices to be an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. BMI are assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$97.58/bbl for 2010, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl, compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
BMI calculates the 2009 decline in Thai real GDP to have been 3.1%, compared with growth of 2.6% in 2008. They are now assuming growth of an average annual 3.9% in 2010-2014. State-controlled PTTEP and international oil company (IOC) partners are working hard to secure domestic oil and gas volumes, with only limited success in terms of crude oil. BMI are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 230,000b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 278,000b/d in 2010. They expect consumption to have slipped in 2009, but increase by up to 2% per annum in 2010-2014, implying demand of 846,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 616,000b/d by 2014. End-period gas consumption of an estimated 43.9bcm outstrips likely supply of 35.0bcm.
BMI are forecasting a 39.64%reduction in Thai oil production between 2009 and 2019, with crude volumes falling steadily to 178,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 20.71%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 0.93mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 29bcm in 2009 to a peak of 35bcm in 2012-2014, before slipping to 28bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 52.70%, this will require imports to rise to 27.0bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the back of this report, providing regional and country-specific projections. Thailand now shares ninth place with Indonesia in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, reflecting a modest resource position, moderate gas growth outlook and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. The country sits three points behind Pakistan, and is unlikely to achieve any near-term improvement in its score. Thailand now ranks eighth in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its above-average gas demand and relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is three points above Vietnam and Pakistan in the league table, and may struggle to retain its position over the longer term.
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