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Serbia Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, Feb 2010, Pages: 46
The Serbia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's retail industry.
The Q210 BMI Serbia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by 29.1%, from an estimated US$20.57bn in 2009 to US$26.56bn, by 2014. Underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes and the development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Serbian retail sales.
Serbia’s nominal GDP was US$42.10bn in 2009, with growth of just 0.2% expected in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 3.5% is forecast by BMI between 2009 and 2014. Although the population is falling slightly, from 7.4mn to 7.3mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by more than 53% over the forecast period, reaching US$9,379. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$3,838 in 2009 to US$4,551 by 2014.
Serbia is one of the poorest markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), plagued by political uncertainty and high unemployment that deters foreign investment. Low levels of disposable income, the prevalence of corruption and the poor state of infrastructure make this a challenging market. However, the medium-to-long-term potential is significant, particularly if Serbia can achieve EU accession. In 2005, almost 67% of the Serbian population was described by the UN as economically active, with just under 51% in the 20-44 age range, which is crucial for retail sales. Just over half of the population, 52.3%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have risen to 53.8%, but with 48.1% in the 20-44 age range. By this time, 66.8% of the population is expected to be economically active.
The Serbian retail sector is still underserved and fragmented compared to more mature markets, with only 25m2 of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants, compared with the EU average of 270m2. However, the increasing development of organised retail infrastructure will result in retail sub-sectors such as over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics growing substantially over the forecast period. Sales of OTC pharmaceutical products are predicted by BMI to increase from US$0.13bn in 2009 to US$0.18bn before the end of the forecast period, a rise of over 37%. The consumer electronics sector is forecast to grow by nearly 62%, from US$1.15bn in 2009 to US$1.86bn by 2014.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,067bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,135bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Serbia, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.9% is expected to fall to 1.3% by 2014.
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