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Slovenia Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 43
The Slovenia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's retail industry.
The Q210 BMI Slovenia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$14.74bn in 2009 to US$18.74bn by 2014, an increase of over 27% in US dollar terms. Rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenian retail sales.
Slovenia’s nominal GDP was US$42.91bn in 2009, with 2009’s decline of 7.9% expected to turn into growth of 1.8% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 1.4% is forecast by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 2.04mn in 2009 to an estimated 2.06mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is forecast to rise from US$5,017 in 2009 to US$6,165 by 2014.
The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which partly reflects the absence of large cities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city Ljubljana there are fewer than 300,000 residents. The average age in the country is also high compared with other European countries at 41 years old. Both of these factors work against retailers. However, unemployment, which rose to an estimated 11.0% in 2009, looks set to trend lower from 2010, ending the forecast period at 6.5%. In 2005, almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as economically active, but with just 36.6% in the 20-44 age range. Just over half of the Slovenian population, 50.8%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to fall to 47.4%, with only 32.9% aged 20- 44. By this time, 68.4% of the population is expected to be economically active.
Using BMI Food & Drink data, we identify a food and drink market share in 2009 of 30.5% of total retail sales. This is forecast to decline to 26.2% by 2014 as the non-food sector matures. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$0.05bn in 2009 to US$0.07bn by 2014, a rise of 37.5%.
Automotives sales are expected to increase by 10.5% to US$1.44bn over the same period. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,067bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,135bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Slovenia, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.4% is expected to fall to 0.9% by 2014.
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