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Poland Agribusiness Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 63
Poland Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Poland's agribusiness service.
The authors forecast impressive gains in a number of areas of Polish agribusiness over the forecast period to 2014, as the country continues to benefit from the raft of subsidies and financial aid available to it as an EU member. The sectors set to impress - and those left behind - are explored in detail in the latest Polish Agribusiness Q110 Report.
Production of wheat, Poland's most important crop, is set to continue its recent expansion. The latest estimate for 2009 wheat production stands at 9.71mn tonnes, up 4.8% on 2008's crop of 9.27mn tonnes. Both a higher planted area - up from 2.28mn hectares (ha) in 2008 to 2.35mn ha in 2009 - and higher yield (up from 4.07 tonnes per hectare to 4.14 tonnes/ha) made this significant year-on-year (y-o-y) gain possible. The authors believe increased yields are a result of the consolidation process taking place in Poland as well as modernisation of agricultural holdings and infrastructure improvements. These are being made possible by the EU's Rural Development Plan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn (EU and national funding combined). We therefore expect to see production continue to increase over our forecast period. In 2010, we forecast production to reach 10.2mn tonnes, a 2.96% increase y-o-y. By 2014, production should reach 11.4mn tonnes, a total gain of 17.8% over our five-year forecast period. Milk production, which we estimate in 2009 stood at 12.47mn tonnes, is likely to increase as yields improve and EU milk quotas are boosted before their abolishment in 2015. Yield gains are at least partly the result of genetics imports.
Since Poland's accession to the EU in 2004, the Polish market for dairy livestock genetics has grown by around 20% each year, according to a June 2009 report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Increasing milk exports to other EU-15 countries are allowing Polish dairy farmers to fund imports of bull semen from other EU countries and the US. Average Polish dairy yields in 2008 stood at 4,596kg per cow, according to the USDA report. In 2005-2007, average milk production yield per animal was at 4,214kg, against an average of 4,082kg for the three years before. Nevertheless, not every commodity is set to impress. Since EU accession, Polish pork producers have struggled. In 2006, pork production stood at 2.11mn tonnes. In 2009, we estimate output at just 1.55mn tonnes, a 27% drop. Inefficiency, high feed prices and a strong zloty against the euro have all conspired against Polish pig farmers. These factors remain in play and pork production continues to plummet. In 2010, we forecast a 2.27% y-o-y fall to 1.51mn tonnes; by 2014, we expect production to have dropped to 1.37mn tonnes, an 11.8% decrease over our 2009-2014 forecast period.
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