Bulgaria Commercial Banking Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 48
Bulgaria Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports. Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter.
The evaluation of the Limits of Potential Returns includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the Limits of Potential Returns, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the Risks to Realisation of Returns also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, the assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the Limits of Potential Returns are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the Limits of Potential Returns, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the Risks to Realisation of Returns category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody's Investor Services' ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from the long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary
Table: Levels (BGNbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At November 2009
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
Table: Projected Levels (BGNbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Commercial Banking SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Europe Banking Sector Outlook
Bulgaria Banking Sector Outlook
Banking Sector: Tough Times Ahead In 2010
Economic Outlook
Bulgaria - Economic Activity
Comparison Of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios
Anticipated Developments In 2010
Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009)
Interbank Rates And Bond Yields
Competitive Landscape
Table: Protagonists In Bulgaria's Commercial Banking Sector
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
List Of Banks
Table: Distribution Of Banks As Grouped By BNB (November 2009)
Company Profiles
UniCredit Bulbank
Table: Key Statistics For UniCredit Bulbank, 2005-2008 (BGNmn)
DSK Bank
Table: Key Statistics For DSK Bank, 2005-2008 (BGNmn)
Eurobank EFG Bulgaria
Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria)
Table: Key Statistics For Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria), 2004-2008 (BGNmn)
Allianz Bank Bulgaria
Table: Key Statistics For Allianza Bank Bulgaria, 2004-2008 (BGNmn)
Central Cooperative Bank
Stock Market Indicators
Balance Sheet (BGNmn, unless stated)
Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
Key Ratios (%)
Banking Sector Methodology
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- UniCredit Bulbank
- DSK Bank
- Eurobank EFG Bulgaria
- Raiffeisenbank
- Allianz Bank Bulgaria
- Central Cooperative Bank
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