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Canada Food and Drink Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 56
Canada Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's food and drink industry.
Canada’s national statistics office has reported that retail sales in September increased by 1% on August. Although sales were 3.3% lower than the same month in 2008, this growth was twice as big as had been expected and was driven by sales of automobiles and at supermarkets. Food and beverage outlets saw their sales rise by 1.3% on the previous month, while in total sales expanded in six of eight retail sectors, with only building/outdoor home supplies and clothing/accessories registering a decline. This pick up in retail sales underlines the fact that Canada’s recession looks likely to be shallower and shorter lasting than its neighbour the US’s – a fact likely to filter through to the results posted by Canada’s leading food producers and mass grocery retailers.
We are currently forecasting that Canada’s economy will have contracted by 2.5% by the end of 2009. However, an upturn in economic data means that we have pushed up our growth estimate for 2010 from 1.6% to 2.5%. As such, we are expecting Canada to outperform its developed world peers in 2010, including the US, for which we are projecting growth of just 1.9%. The adage 'when America sneezes, Canada catches a cold' still remains true to a large extent, after all, despite relatively favourable domestic conditions, Canada's growth performance in 2009 will have been the worst for decades, and its timing has mirrored the US downturn. However, unlike in the US, where the recession was the worst since the Great Depression, the Canadian recessionary experience has been merely as bad as four other post-war downturns (in terms of peak-to-trough output). Canada entered the recession in much better shape than the US, and we believe that as a result, the Canadian economy is better set to rebound.
This has been reflected in the results posted by the country’s largest mass grocery retailers. Leading retailer Loblaw, which is in the middle of a turnaround programme, reported that despite the economic headwinds its same-store sales declined by only 0.6% in the third quarter of the year, while second-placed Metro recorded a same-store rise of 2% over the same period. This resilient performance is reflected in our forecasts for both the country’s mass grocery retail sector and for total food consumption, with sales expected to have stagnated in 2009, rather than contract significantly, and expected to bounce back sharply as the economic recovery continues to gather pace.
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