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Argentina Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 52
The Argentina Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's retail industry.
The Q110 BMI Argentina Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from just under US$137bn in 2009 to more than US$235bn by 2014. An expanding population, rising disposable income and a taste for ‘luxury’ items are key factors behind the forecast growth in Argentina’s retail sales. Argentina’s nominal GDP was US$9,326bn in 2009, with a decline of 0.9% forecast for 2010 as the result of a delayed economic recovery. Average annual GDP growth of 5.1% is predicted by BMI for 2009- 2014. With the population increasing from 40.3mn in 2009 to an estimated 42.4mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 66%, reaching US$15,448 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase of 41.9%, from US$4,916 in 2009 to US$6,976 in 2014. In 2005, 63.6% of the Argentine population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with 36.8% in the crucial 20-44 age range. A massive 90.6% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached more than 93.0% of the total population, with 38.0% in the 20-44 age band. By this time, 64.9% of the population is expected to be active. Efforts to rebuild credit following the financial and political crisis of 1999-2002 had a positive impact on consumer expenditure and, consequently, retail sales.
In attempts to repair consumer confidence, banks and retailers introduced more favourable terms for issuing consumer credit, and retailers – particularly the larger ones – established more flexible payment options to encourage expenditure. Tourism plays an important part in Argentine retail sales. During 2008, tourists spent about US$3.3bn in the country, up by more than 8% from the previous year, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, INDEC). However, tourist spending in May 2009 was down by more than 25% on the same month in 2008, with tourist arrivals down by 15%. Retail sub-sectors likely to grow strongly over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales expected to rise 25% between 2009 and 2014, from US$33.39bn to US$41.79bn. OTC pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$0.42bn in 2009 to US$0.59bn by 2014 (+40.3%), with consumer electronic sales growing by 35% to US$5.27bn from US$3.92bn in 2009. Automotive sales are forecast to increase by 21% between 2009 and 2014, from US$4.69bn to US$5.66bn. In 2009, retail sales for the Latin American economies covered by BMI amounted to an estimated US$1,216bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, was US$3,384bn. Mexico, Brazil and Argentina together accounted for an estimated 72.2% of regional retail sales in 2009. Their combined share is expected to rise to 73.9% by 2014. Argentina's estimated 2009 market share of 11.3% is expected to fall marginally to 11.2% by 2014.
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