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China Insurance Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 103
The China Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's insurance industry.
Writing in November 2009, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. We have generally been able to use data that have been published over the course of 2009 to adjust our forecasts for the year as a whole. We have also extended the forecasts out to 2014. We are looking for total premiums in 2009 of CNY1,094,368mn. This includes non-life premiums of CNY414,048mn and life premiums of CNY680,320mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be CNY1,475,041mn, CNY631,787mn and CNY843,254mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to change from 1.27% in 2009 to 1.18% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$73 to US$103. BMI’s proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for China is 62.8.
This quarter, we include a discussion of developments within regional markets – on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. A key development in recent months has been the slowing – to single digit rates – of the growth in life premiums in China. This may be the result of China Life’s taking a more selective approach to the risks that it is underwriting. Meanwhile, it appears that Ping An and several of the foreign joint venture (JV) insurers are lifting their market share at the expense of China Life. Perhaps because of official measures to boost domestic demand, non-life premiums continue to grow very strongly.
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