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U.S. Department of Homeland Security FY 2011 Budget
Frost & Sullivan, April 2010, Pages: 139
This research services is an assessment of the fiscal year 2011 budget for the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The research service identifies the major market dynamics that are currently influencing growth (drivers and restraints), as well as global trends and threats that are impacting the industry. The research service provides a competitive overview and details for the key industry participants. In addition, the research service contains budget and spending forecasts, relevant program assessments and competitive information for each DHS component agency. The period for the study is 2005 to 2015, with 2009 as the base year. Companies will be able to use this information to highlight opportunities within DHS.
U.S. Homeland Security Market Dynamics: Global Threats and Trends
- Increasing Use of Small Scale Conventional Terrorism
- Proliferation of WMD
- Rise of Al-Qaeda and Global Violent Extremism
- Increase in quantity and sophistication of cyber attacks
- Growth in Illicit Trafficking and Transnational Crime
- Exposure to and Severity of Natural Disasters and Pandemics
- Economic and Financial Instability
- Sophisticated and Broadly Available Technology
- Dependence on Fossil Fuels and Uncertainty of Climate Change
- Global Conflict and Strife
U.S. Homeland Security Market Dynamics: Terrorism Trends
Terrorism has been identified as the major driver behind recent defense and homeland security spending. However the data does not wholly support this conclusion. On a global scale incidents of terrorism have been increasing dramatically since 2004. From 1998 to 2004 there was a relative lull with incident levels at lows. Incidents have migrated from Europe, South American and Africa in the 90’s to the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Despite the increase in global terrorism, the incidents in the U.S. have declined dramatically over the last few years.
The main targets for terrorism in the U.S. are abortion facilities, businesses, government facilities, Private citizens & property and embassies. The favorite type of attack used by terrorists in the U.S. is bombing, followed by attacks on infrastructure, armed assault, and assassination. The weapon of choice is explosives, incendiaries and firearms.
Based on this data, physical security measures such as CCTV, fencing/bollards, and other similar technologies are expected to see continued funding Spending for explosives detection and IED/EOD technology will be driven by the trends highlighted here as well.
Over the last year the U.S. government and the American public has been reminded that although the perceived threat from terrorism remains high due to activity overseas, the homeland is still vulnerable. Four incidents this year (New York, Ft. Hood, Flight 253, and the Austin IRS attack) on separate targets from individuals from completely different walks of life highlight the fact that there is no silver bullet to securing the homeland and that no matter what technology is deployed the nation is still vulnerable.
All three of these incidents are sure to spur increases in spending. As the “face” of DHS TSA, has moved quickly in the response to the Flight 253 incident. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s attempt to blow up Flight 253 resulted in a reversal of policy on passenger imaging technology as the FY 2011 TSA budget is pushing millions to industry for Advanced Imaging Technology (AIT) systems.
General Aviation is set to receive increased scrutiny just as TSA and the federal government had decided that security restrictions and requirements were too stringent and needed to be relaxed. General Aviation is likely to see increased intelligence related measures such as watch lists, detailed flight plans and more thoroughly managed vetting procedures.
Intelligence analysis tools are likely to be in demand as a result of these recent incidents. Flight 253 was an extraordinary example of deficiencies in intelligence analysis and sharing, both domestically and with our international partners. Although the major challenge with intelligence remains at the human level, technology does play a role and is likely to receive DHS funding in the future.
Despite a major focus on international threats to the homeland these recent events have increased awareness of the home-grown, domestic threats that the country faces. The home-grown threat requires a different approach to security and will rely more on the vigilance of communities and the capabilities of local homeland security professionals than the federal government.
U.S. Homeland Security Market Dynamics: Risk Assessment
Risk is defined as the potential threat posed by a type of attack, the vulnerability of the target and the potential consequences if an attack is successful.
If homeland security spending was based solely on risk and could be de-politicized we would expect to see resources from DHS focusing on the following threats in order of risk: Cyber, Biological, Nuclear/Radiological, Unconventional/Asymmetric, Explosives, and Chemical.
To some degree we are starting to see this trend work out but DHS still spends more on preventing explosive threats than any other despite the fact that 9/11, the Ft. Hood shooting, and the Austin IRS attack were all unconventional in nature.
Preparedness and detection technologies are critical in increasing capabilities to match risk, but the single, most important element is analysis and dissemination of intelligence.
Across DHS funding is still not adequate to accomplish this task and across the federal government management and organizational dynamics continue to hamper these efforts.
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