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The New Zealand Forest Products Industry Review 2010
DANA Limited, Feb 2010, Pages: 220
The 2010 edition of “The New Zealand Forest Products Industry Review” is the 8th published by DANA Publishing.
This Review has become an important tool for forest owners, solidwood and fibre processors, importers and exporters, competitors, consultants, researchers and government departments. The Review is more than 220 pages and provides more than 150 tables and charts. The review profiles/identifies 68 plantation forest owners (from 1,000 ha to 290,000 ha), together with more than 90 sawmills; and all engineered wood products and pulp and paper facilities.
Most New Zealand 'industrial' forests now have overseas owners: TIMOs, REITS, Funds, Companies and Families. N.Z. is by far the most attractive Overseas TIMO fund recipient. Why?
Most international forest investors watch the USA-based NCREIF returns closely. But, where does New Zealand investment fit in? Superior growth = better returns? IRR return trends for radiata pine are provided for 1992, 2001, 2004, 2009.
NZ rural land prices have escalated sharply, especially this decade. Can trees compete? Are 'massive' HBU returns available when forests are sold? If not – then why not?
Resources: A detailed 10- region wood availability analysis update is provided, and a national projection.
N.Z. log prices have not fitted the expected mould over decades – but is the grief only in NZ$? Several long term price trends are provided.
While several countries have had booming MDF and pulp industry expansions, their N.Z. counterparts have stagnated over the last 20 years. Why?
Sawmilling: More than 30 sawmills shut from 2003-2008 with more than 1.1 MMCM of annual capacity lost. Probably no other country has lost such a large percentage of its sawmill capacity. What gives?
In late- 2009 N.Z. passed the world's first Kyoto compliant, tree offset Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Some are sceptical about its effectiveness, but will it encourage major new forestry expansion?
Topics Include:
Introduction
Business and Politics: Economic indicators, government, five performance benchmarks, exchange rate trends
Plantation History: Historical Government dominance replaced by private investment. Major expansion in 1990s turns to net depletion. Why? Species mix.
Forest Resources: The wall of wood: What wall? Harvests have actually reduced for most of this decade.
Why? Harvest projections for 10 NZ regions out to 2040; and nationally to 2025.
Forest Ownership: Summary of 68 owners including regional holdings. Profiles provided of over 30 players, in the most comprehensive description publicly available.
Plantation Management& Returns: Updated Radiata pine, D. fir, Eucalypt and Redwood costs/returns. Possible carbon + forest returns. Comparison of radiata pine regime IRRs 1992, 2001, 2004, 2009. Risks.
Harvesting – Logs – Woodchips: Production trends to 2009, for domestic and export logs. Contributions to the major markets of Japan, Korea, India and China. Long term $2009 real price trends for six domestic and export grades. Log Exporters. W/Chip export players, statistics and prices.
Pulp & Paper: Players, capacity, production, ownership changes, future direction. While Chile, Brazil,
Uruguay, South Africa and China expand aggressively, N.Z. decides to shrink. Why?
Solidwood Products: Production, export and consumption trends for sawn timber (lumber). More than 90 sawmill producers are profiled in the most comprehensive description publicly available.
The important Australian, US, Japanese and Chinese markets are summarised. N.Z. share of radiata pine lumber production has shrunk from 50% to 34% since 1999. Why?
Engineered Wood Products: Plywood/LVL/MDF/Particleboard. Players, expansions, markets, prospects. But LVL challenges? What happened to the MDF industry?
Environment – Carbon: RMA: forest industry expansion decisions. FSC, N.Z. ETS and PFSI investment opportunities. First N.Z. carbon forest syndicate fund.
Investment Opportunities: Rural land, plantations (production and carbon forests), sawmilling, other processing, pulp and paper. Regional Reviews.
Conclusions
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