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Colombia Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 50
Colombia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's retail industry.
The Q210 BMI Colombia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated US$101bn in 2009 to nearly US$215bn by 2014. Underlying economic growth, a young and increasingly urban population, the rise in disposable income and greater numbers of working women are key factors behind the forecast growth in Colombia’s retail sales.
Colombia’s nominal GDP was an estimated US$220.25bn in 2009, with last year’s decline of 0.4% expected to turn into growth of 1.2% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 2.6% is predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 48.6mn in 2009 to an estimated 52.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 52.5% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,908. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$2,906 in 2009 to US$3,783 by 2014.
Domestic demand will continue to be the key driver for the growth in GDP, with improvements in the security outlook feeding through to increased consumer and investor confidence. In 2006, 1.97mn foreign tourists visited Colombia, a 48% increase over the previous year.
In 2005, 64.5% of the Colombian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 39.2% in the 20-44 age range, which is crucial to retail sales. Over three-quarters of the population was classified by the UN as urban (77.4%). By 2010, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 80%, with 38.5% in the 20-44 age band and 67.3% of the population expected to be active. The retail sector benefits from Colombia’s status as the third most populous country in Latin America. Based on previous data from Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE), we estimate that sales of clothes and textiles amounted to US$9.88bn in 2009, 9.8% of the total retail market. Personal hygiene products recorded estimated sales of US$7.42bn, a 7.3% market share. Assuming constant market shares, BMI forecasts clothes and textiles sales of US$21.02bn by 2014, with personal hygiene products rising to US$15.77bn.
Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales stood at an estimated US$0.41bn in 2009, according to the BMI database, with sales predicted to more than double by the end of the forecast period to US$0.87bn. Sales of consumer electronic products were estimated at US$3.16bn in 2009, with BMI forecasting a 52.5% rise to US$4.83bn in 2014.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,269bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, was US$3,384bn. Mexico and Brazil together accounted for an estimated 63.2% of regional retail sales in 2009. Their combined share is expected to rise to 64.8% by 2014. For Colombia, the estimated 2009 market share of 8.0% is expected to rise to 9.7% by 2014.
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