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Venezuela Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 54
Venezuela Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's retail industry.
The Q210 BMI Venezuela Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow by an average of 35% a year in local currency terms between 2009 and 2014, from VEF281.50bn (US$131.26bn) to VEF1,323.81bn (US$132.38bn). However, hyperinflation and the country’s first currency devaluation since 2005 make the outlook less certain, with BMI forecasting average annual growth of 7.1% in US dollar terms for the forecast period. An expanding population, rising disposable income and easier access to consumer credit should still have positive effects on Venezuela’s retail sales.
Venezuela’s nominal GDP was US$386.40bn in 2009, with 2009’s decline of 3.0% expected to worsen to a contraction of 3.5% in 2010 as the country continues to suffer the effects of a prolonged economic slowdown. Average annual GDP growth of just 0.8% is predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 28.8mn in 2009 to an estimated 31.6mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is forecast to increase from US$7,184 in 2009 to US$10,346 by 2014.
Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%. In 2005, 63.8% of the Venezuelan population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.8% in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales. By 2015, the proportion in the 20-44 age band is predicted to be 38.5% and 65.5% of the population is expected to be economically active. BMI forecasts that organised retail sales will grow considerably faster than underlying retail sales over the period, with the organised retail sector likely to be worth US$62.28bn by 2014. This would take its share of the total retail market to 47.0%, up from 31.2% in 2009.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to grow from US$0.52bn in 2009 to US$0.60bn by 2014, up by over 16%, while automotives sales are forecast to fall by 1.6%, from US$1.37bn in 2009 to US$1.35bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are expected to show strong growth, rising from US$3.19bn in 2009 to US$4.06bn by the 2014, an increase of over 27%. Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,269bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, was US$3,384bn. Mexico and Brazil together accounted for an estimated 63.2% of regional retail sales in 2009. Their combined share is expected to rise to 64.8% by 2014. For Venezuela, the estimated 2009 market share of 10.3% is expected to fall to 6.0% by 2014.
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