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Argentina Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 106
The Argentina Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's oil and gas industry.
The latest Argentina Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.08% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 6.50% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.78mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.92mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.631mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.69mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.79mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.91mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.15mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 200.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 263.9bcm targeted for 2014, representing 31.6% growth. Production of an estimated 216.8bcm in 2009 should reach 293.0bcm in 2014 and implies 29.1bcm of net exports by the end of the period. Argentina’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 22.44%, while its share of production was 20.52%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.72%, with the country accounting for 15.57% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices at an average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Argentina’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 0.2% in 2009, compared with 7.0% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 1.5% in 2010-2014. State entity Enarsa acts as partner to international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, operating alongside regional heavyweight Repsol YPF and others. We are assuming oil production of no more than 701,000b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 67,5000b/d in 2010. Beyond the predicted 2009/2010 dip, consumption is forecast to increase by around 1.5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 525,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The crude oil export capability would therefore be approximately 17,6000b/d by 2014. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 44.5bcm in 2009 to 45.6bcm over the period, resulting in the need for 6.4bcm of net imports by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Argentine oil production of 6.86%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 715,000b/d, before falling steadily to 633,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 14.34%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 555,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 44.5bcm in 2009 to a peak of 48.0bcm in 2012/2013, before slipping back to 35.3bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 27.63%, this provides a need for net imports rising to 22.1bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Argentina shares fifth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, alongside Trinidad & Tobago. Its gas resources, largely privatised oil sector, licensing regime and competitive landscape work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by an absence of growth potential, asset maturity and unappealing risk environment. Limited scope exists for Argentina to pull away from Trinidad, but it should be safe from Bolivia some 10 points below. The country is well up the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its privatised refining and marketing segment, substantial capacity and competitive environment, offset by only moderate growth potential and a relatively high level of retail site intensity. Argentina holds third place in the regional rankings, having remained ahead of Trinidad, with a comfortable five-point lead.
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