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Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q2 2010

Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 86


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The Ukraine Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's food and drink industry.

Ukraine’s food industry, which is, after Russia, the second-largest in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, grew rapidly until H208, on the back of the country’s economic boom. The onset of the global financial meltdown curbed this trajectory, with 2009 value growth estimated in low single-digits. However, we expect that an economic recovery will result in a return to stronger annual growth levels from the current year, although high inflation levels will also play a part in this. Having been worth around UAH90bn (US$11bn) in 2009, we see the value of food consumption in Ukraine reaching UAH130.6bn (US$21.7bn) in 2014, assuming 44.78% five-year growth in local currency terms. However, in BMI’s Food and Drink Business Environment Rankings (BER) for Q210, Ukraine again ranks last, out of the 15 key markets in emerging Europe. Ukraine’s position is largely the consequence of the dismal state of its economy, which has inspired little investor confidence. An additional problem is a decline in population numbers, as well as population ageing (associated with less receptivity towards innovative foods and beverages), the falling number of retail outlets and the increased popularity of discount offerings. Moreover, while Ukraine’s large population of around 46mn indicates considerable potential of its food and drink market, high inflation, a fragile political situation and regulatory shortcomings will continue to hamper its development.

Nevertheless, and despite the difficult economic situation in 2009, leading Ukrainian confectionery manufacturer Roshen recently reported a 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in 2009 volume sales, with exports alone rising by 30% y-o-y. The second-largest domestic confectionery maker, Konti, also posted substantial annual increase in volumes, boosted by new product introductions, which resulted in a 30% value sales growth for the year. While Konti could feasibly build on the sales momentum generated in 2009 going into 2010, particularly if it continues to strengthen its portfolio, ongoing headline economic weakness dictates that cost optimisation is likely to remain a core focus.

The news from the Ukrainian beverages industry has also been encouraging. The country’s second-largest beer company, Obolon, is to receive a US$123mn loan to firm up its balance sheet and strengthen production. Its position as Ukraine's leading exporter of beer should prove particularly useful over the coming years, as it already accounts for about 80% of export volumes shifted. Competition from thirdplaced Carlsberg-owned Baltic Beverages Holding (BBH) is, however, likely to strengthen, with the brewer reportedly considering an investment in a new brewing facility in the country. The developments indicate a continuing belief in the Ukraine’s beverage market potential, with the beer and soft drinks segments in particular likely to attract foreign interest, especially as the co-hosting of the 2012 UEFA football championship nears.


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