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Namibia Mining Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 40
Namibia Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Namibia's mining industry.
Weatherly Sells Tsumeb Smelter To Dundee
In January 2010, Weatherly International sold the Tsumeb Custom Smelter to Canadian concern Dundee Precious Metals for some US$33mn. Dundee has already announced plans to double the capacity of Tsumeb to 240,000 tonnes per annum (tpa). The doubling of capacity will reportedly be achieved by building a new oxygen plant, which will enable the smelter to take more concentrates at lower unit costs, according to a report by MetalBulletin. As such, the plant will not only be able to take around 120,000 tonnes of material per year from Dundee Precious Metals’ Chilopech mine in Bulgaria, but will also be able to refine copper materials from Botswana, Zambia and possibly also the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the company is scoping the potential for deals with copper producers. Regulatory approval for the Tsumeb sale was granted by the Namibian Competition Commission at the end of February 2010.
New Data for 2010
The author has made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensuring that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.
Country Overview
Namibia is richly endowed with natural resources; in particular uranium and diamond deposits. The country is the world’s fourth-largest producer of uranium and among the largest gem-quality diamond producers in value terms. It also features among the top five nations around the globe for its zinc, copper and lead reserves. To expand the revenue earning potential of its mining industry, the Namibian government is making fervent efforts to establish a strong domestic market for diamond cutting and polishing. Taken together, these factors underscore the importance of the Namibian mining industry for its economy.
The Namibian mining industry needs to gain a foothold in certain areas to further enhance its prospects, particularly as diamond production appears to slow down. Lack of water resources is a key factor that discourages investments in the mining industry. As a result of the nation’s underperforming infrastructural facilities, mineral exploration has been slow, thus constraining the growth of the Namibian mining industry. On the other hand, recognising the vital role uranium is set to play in the country’s future, processes have been initiated to revise and amend the Minerals Act, to align regulations that allow judicious exploitation of the resource.
Industry Forecast
After a very challenging 2009, when the industry shrank significantly, there are reasons for cautious optimism on the Namibian mining sector as we enter 2010. Demand for diamonds should pick up over the course of the year and the country’s burgeoning uranium sector should continue to grow strongly. We also now feel that the outlook for the key copper sector is better.
The authors believe the Namibian mining sector can reach an average annual growth rate of 3.23% over our forecast period to 2014, reaching a value of US$0.74bn.
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