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China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 105
China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In February 2010, the authors upgraded China’s patented drug market forecast following clarification of the country’s intellectual property (IP) law. Clear legal definitions of fundamental terms such as ‘patented pharmaceutical’ will provide assurances to foreign multinationals looking to launch their products in the most promising emerging pharmaceutical market in the world. Sales of patented drugs in China are expected to increase from US$4.51bn in 2009 to US$28.63bn in 2019, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.3%.
In the Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) for Q210, China has maintained fourth position of the 15 markets covered. The country’s Pharma Rating has improved from 58.9 in Q110 to 61.3 in Q210, making it the most improved regional market after India. China scores highly for Pharmaceutical Market (67) and Market Risks (67), but is let down by Country Risk (55) and Country Structure (43).
Healthcare spending in China is forecast to increase from CNY1,472bn (US$215.26bn) in 2009 to CNY1,682bn (US$250.36bn) in 2010. Due to the strengthening yuan, this equates to growth of 14.3% in local currency terms and 16.3% in US dollar terms. Annual per-capita spending on medical services is US$159, which is above the regional average of US$123. The government accounts for just under half the spending and expenditure as a percent of GDP is 4.5%. By 2014, yearly healthcare spending will have risen to CNY2,878bn (US$496.24bn).
The key driver of healthcare spending in China is the booming economy. Real GDP growth came in at 10.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q409 – the fastest pace since Q407 – as fixed investment continued to boom and consumer spending growth accelerated. These factors made up for the negative contribution of net exports. The full-year growth figure came in at 8.7%, slightly above the Country Risk team’s 8.4% expectations and the current strong momentum places upside risks to their 8.8% forecast for 2010. Publication of the National Essential Drugs List (NEDL) in August 2009 has significantly boosted demand for medicines at grassroots medical institutions, such as community clinics. The NEDL contains 201 allopathic drugs and 102 types of traditional Chinese medicines. It is anticipated that 60% of community-level medical facilities in both urban and rural areas will stock the essential drugs by the end of 2010, with universal uptake slated for 2020.
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