China and the US: From Co-operation to Confrontation?
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 29
The report examines the main threats to amicable China-US relations, and outlines three scenarios for the coming decade.
The relationship between the US and China is the most important bilateral tie in the world, and will be pivotal to maintaining global security and economic stability in the early 21st century. Thus far, Washington and Beijing have maintained a generally co-operative relationship, but this cannot be taken for granted indefinitely. We thus outline three scenarios for how the relationship might develop over the coming decade.
The US is the world’s sole superpower, while China is rapidly emerging as one, and is the only country that could realistically challenge the US for global dominance. The two countries’ economic ties are now so important that China and the US have since 2007 been described as ‘Chimerica’–two sides of a single economy that comprises a third of global GDP. Therefore, any deterioration in this relationship would be detrimental for global political, economic and financial stability.
China And The US: From Cooperation To Confrontation?
Three Scenarios For The Coming Decade
Areas Of Contention (And Cooperation)–Present And Future
Global Economy
chart: Trade Deficit A Sore Point
US Trade Position With China (US$bn)
chart: US Wants Faster Apreciation
China - Exchange Rate, CNY/US$
chart: A Helping Hand
Holdings Of US Treasuries (US$bn)
chart: Generous Benefactors
Holdings Of US Treasuries (% of Foreign-Held USTs)
chart: Insatiable Demand For Energy
China - Crude Oil Imports
Geopolitical Issues And Global Security
chart: A Narrowing Gap
Nominal GDP, US$bn
chart: US Has Global Reach
Major US Overseas Troop Deployments, 30 Sept 2009
chart: Trouble On The Western Front
China - Xinjiang Province
Ideological And Philosophical Issues
Three Scenarios For US-China Relations
1: China As A Status Quo Power
2: China Challenges US Dominance
chart: A ‘String Of Pearls’?
China - Port Developments In South Asia
3: China Weakens, While The US Resurges
The Wildest Card: A Military Confrontation Between China And The US?
Beyond The 2010s
China Long-Term Political Outlook
Major Challenges Over The Coming Decades
Threats And Challenges To Stability
Scenarios For Political Change
Best Case Scenario: Elite-Led Transition
Worst Case Scenario: Indonesia-Style Chaos
Democracy No Quick Fix
China 10-Year Economic Forecast
Liberalisation To Underpin Growth
Economy Still Liberalising
Table: CHINA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 2004 - 2011
indicators: Nominal GDP, US$bn [1], Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y [1], Population, mn [1],
GDP per capita, US$ [1], Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave [1], Curent account, % of GDP [1],
Exchange rate CNY/US$, ave [2]
Table: CHINA Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 2012 - 2019
indicators: Nominal GDP, US$bn [1], Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y [1], Population, mn [1],
GDP per capita, US$ [1], Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave [1], Curent account, % of GDP [1],
Exchange rate CNY/US$, ave [2]
Education Will Be A Key Driver
Demographics Still Favourable
USA Long-Term Political Forecast
Tough Challenges In The 2010s
Challenges And Threats To Governance And Stability
Scenarios For Political Change
Wild Cards: Terrorism And Defeat In Afghanistan
USA 10-Year Economic Forecast
Economy Down, But Not Out, Over The Long Run
Table: UNITED STATES Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 2004 - 2011
indicators: Nominal GDP, US$bn [1], Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y [1], Population, mn [1],
GDP per capita, US$ [2], Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave [3], Curent account, % of GDP [4]
Table: UNITED STATES Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 2012 - 2019
indicators: Nominal GDP, US$bn [1], Real GDP growth, % change y-o-y [1], Population, mn [1],
GDP per capita, US$ [2], Consumer prices, % y-o-y, ave [3], Curent account, % of GDP [4]
Risks To Outlook
Global Assumptions
Global Outlook
EM Still Showing Signs Of Outperformance
Developed States
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
indicators: real gdp growth, (%), consumer inflation (avg), interest rates (eop), exchange
rates (avg), oil prices (avg)
Emerging Markets
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
indicators: developed states aggregate growth, selected developed states
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
indicators: emerging markets aggregate growth - Latin america, Middle east, africa,
emerg ing asia, emerg ing europe
TABLE: GLOBAL & REGIONAL REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
indicators: regions, developed market exchange rates, emerg ing market exchange rates
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