|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 75
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bolivia's oil and gas industry.
The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.70% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.58% of supply. Latin American regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.78mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.92mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.631mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.69mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.79mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.91mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.15mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 200.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 263.9bcm targeted for 2014, representing 31.6% growth. Production of an estimated 216.8bcm in 2009 should reach 293.0bcm in 2014, and implies 29.1bcm of net exports the end of the period. Bolivia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.30%, while its share of production was 6.89%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.20%, with the country accounting for 6.81% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is forecasting global premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00/bbl, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63/bbl in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50/bbl in 2009. The 2010 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07/bbl in 2009.
Bolivian real GDP growth in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have been 0.8%, down from 5.7% in 2008. We are assuming average annual 3.3% growth in 2010-2014. There is increasing state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government policy that supports re-nationalisation. This means that the burden of development falls heavily on state-owned Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil company (IOC) partners. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 58,000b/d by 2014, and the country is expected to pump 55,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2.0-3.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 61,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Bolivian oil production of 2.71%, with crude volumes peaking in 2012 at 60,000b/d, before falling steadily to 52,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 26.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 67,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 14.9bcm in 2009 to a peak of 20.0bcm in 2013/14, before slipping back to 18.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 48.0%, this provides export potential falling from a forecast peak of 16.9bcm in 2013 to 14.2bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bolivia now takes seventh place in BMI’s Upstream Business Environment Rating, 10 points behind Argentina and Trinidad, but just one point ahead of Ecuador. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-toproduction ratio (RPR) work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by the state’s renewed control of assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment Rating, reflecting its statecontrolled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country’s gas self-sufficiency. Chile is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but a 10-point gap exists between the two that is unlikely to be bridged by Bolivia at any point in the near future.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2011
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Ghana Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
|
|
|
|
