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Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 93
Mexico Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's oil and gas industry.
The latest Mexico Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 23.93% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 23.18% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.78mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.92mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.631mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.69mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.79mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.91mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.15mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 200.6 billion cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 263.9bcm targeted for 2014, representing 31.6% growth. Production of an estimated 216.8bcm in 2009 should reach 293.0bcm in 2014, and implies 29.1bcm of net exports the end of the period. Mexico in 2009 consumed an estimated 30.91% of the regions gas, with its market share for 2014 forecast at 31.08%. In 2009, it produced an estimated 25.37% of the regions gas, and is expected to be contributing 20.48% by 2014.
For 2009 as a whole,BMI have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, they expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. They are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
Mexican real GDP in 2009 is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 7.1%, compared with growth of 1.3% in 2008. They are assuming average annual 2.8% growth in 2010-2014. Unless the government introduces a radical shift in energy policy, BMI expect state-owned Petrleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to retain full responsibility for oil production, without international oil company (IOC) involvement. BMI are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 2.50mn b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 2.83mn b/d in 2010. Beyond the weakness of 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by no more than 1.5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 2.07mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The net export capability would therefore be approximately 435,000b/d by 2014. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 55bcm in 2009 to 60bcm over the period, with 22bcm of net imports required by 2014.
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