Egypt Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 65
The Egypt Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's retail industry.
BMI’s Q210 Egypt Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$76.40bn in 2009 to US$141.66bn by 2014. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Egypt’s retail sales are an extremely large and youthful population, the emergence of a more affluent middle class, a vibrant tourism industry and the growing acceptance of modern retail concepts.
Egypt’s nominal GDP was US$189.80bn in 2009, with growth set to slow further, from 4.7% in 2009 to 3.5% in 2010, as the economy struggles to regain its pre-crisis vigour. Average annual GDP growth of 4.7% is forecast by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 78mn in 2009 to an estimated 84mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 70.5%, reaching US$4,163.
Egypt’s substantial population makes it the largest market in the Arab world, with the population of the Cairo area alone over 15mn people in 2008. Alexandria is also a large city, with a population of more than 4mn.
In 2005, 63.3% of the Egyptian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.3% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2010, 65.1% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to reach 37.4%.
Increasing urbanisation is also contributing to growth in the retail sector. In 2005, 42.3% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 43.2% in 2010. The country’s retail market also benefits from high tourist spending, with official data showing that foreign tourist arrivals totalled almost 12.8mn in 2008, a 19% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. Despite a 5.5% drop in tourist arrivals in the first nine months of 2009, and a 6.4% drop in tourism revenue, Egypt has an enduring historical appeal that should sustain its competitiveness compared with other holiday destinations. Although BMI expects the tourist market to remain subdued over the next two years, we estimate that visitor numbers will increase further, to nearly 18mn, by the end of the forecast period. Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to more than double, from US$0.42bn in 2009 to US$0.84bn by 2014. Automotives sales are forecast to rise by more than 166%, from US$7.87bn in 2009 to US$20.96bn by 2014, while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$2.86bn in 2009 to US$4.93bn, a rise of more than 72%.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Egypt Retail Business Environment SWOT
Egypt Political SWOT
Egypt Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2009e
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Egypt Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2007-2014
Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Business Environment Ratings
Egypt Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Egypt Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Egypt’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2002-2008
Table: Structure Of Egypt’s MGR Market – Sales Value By Format, 2002-2008 (US$bn)
Table: Average Annual Value Sales By Format, 2008
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2014 (EGPbn)
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 & 2019
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Egypt Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Egypt’s Distributors For Leading Brands
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Demand, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
Industry Developments
Automotives
Egypt Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Egypt Commercial Vehicle Market Sales By Segment, 2005
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Egypt Autos Sector Overview, 2008-2014
TABLE: Egypt Autos Sector Imports & Exports, 2008-2014
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2010
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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