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China Insurance Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 116
Business Monitor International's China Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's insurance industry.
A major change in relation to BMI's last quarterly report is that The report reviews all data publicly available at the beginning of 2010 in order to ensure that their estimates and forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are reasonable. The report has been able to include actual data for 2008 across all countries that are survey in the Asia Pacific region.
The report includes a regional review that looks at the actual and forecast growth rates for premiums in both major segments. A key insight is that growth in China’s life segment has slowed markedly over the last year or so. Nevertheless, the impact of the global financial crisis was much greater in South Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. For the time being, BMI continue to expect that the most rapid growth will take place in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines, where organised savings are at an embryonic state of development. For non-life insurers, the key insight is that price competition has caused penetration (ie premiums as a percentage of GDP) to fall in many countries. Indeed, there has been a fall in absolute premiums in some instances. As was the case in Q110, the report provides a ranking of the major players in each of the two main segments, as they are seen by the organisation providing the data (which, in practice, is usually the regulator or the trade association). In China the three largest non-life companies in H109 in terms of gross written premiums were PICC, China Pacific and Ping An, whose market shares were 42%, 12% and 12%, respectively. In the life segment, the leaders were China Life, Ping An Life and China Pacific, whose market shares were 39%, 17% and 8%, respectively. Over time, BMI hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. The report emphasises though, that a decline in share of gross written premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.
The report also provides a breakdown of the insurance sector by line from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association.
The report looks for total premiums in 2009 of CNY1,106,760mn. This comprises non-life premiums of CNY374,707mn and life premiums of CNY732,053mn In 2014 the corresponding figures should be CNY1,489,832mn, CNY697,010mn and CNY792,822mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin the forecasts, BMI are looking for non-life penetration to change from 1.14% in 2009 to 1.30% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$79 to US$97. BMI’s proprietary insurance business environment rating for China is 62.8 out of 100.
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