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Singapore Insurance Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 101
Business Monitor International's Singapore Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's insurance industry.
A major change in relation to our last quarterly report is that we have reviewed all data that is publicly available at the beginning of 2010 in order to ensure that our estimates and forecasts for 2009 and this year are reasonable. We have been able to include actual data for 2008 across all countries that we survey in the Asia Pacific region.
This quarter, we include a regional review that looks at the actual and forecast growth rates for premiums – across both major segments. A key insight is that growth in China’s life segment has slowed markedly over the last year or so. Nevertheless, the impact of the global financial crisis was much greater in South Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. For the time being, we continue to expect that the most rapid growth will take place in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines – where organised savings are at an embryonic state of development. For non-life insurers, the key insight is that price competition has caused penetration (ie: premiums as a percentage of GDP) to fall in many countries. There has been a fall in absolute premiums in some instances.
As was the case in Q1, we provide a ranking of the major players in each of the two main segments – as they are seen by the organisation providing the data (which, in practice, is usually the regulator or the trade association). In Singapore for instance, the three largest non-life companies in H109, in terms of gross written premiums written, were American Home, NTUC Income and AXA Singapore, whose market shares were 13.8%, 10.3% and 7.7% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in the first half of 2009 were AIA, Great Eastern Life and NTUC Income. Over time, we hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. We emphasise though that a decline in share of gross written premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.
In this report, we also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Singapore, for instance, the largest non-life lines in 2008 were motor, fire and work injury compensation. These accounted for 34%, 12% and 10% respectively of total non-life premiums. Over time, we should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to our forecasting process.
We estimate total premiums in 2009 of SGD20,436mn. This includes non-life premiums of SGD7,108mn and life premiums of SGD13,328mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be SGD29,697mn, SGD10,603mn and SGD19,094mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we forecast non-life penetration to rise from 3.00% in 2009 to 3.56% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$1,876 to US$2,700. BMI’s proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Singapore is 72.5 out of 100.
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