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Thailand Insurance Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 104
Business Monitor International's Thailand Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's insurance industry.
A major change in relation to BMI last quarterly report is that they have reviewed all data that is publicly available at the beginning of 2010 in order to ensure that their estimates for 2009 and forecasts for 2010 are reasonable. BMI have been able to include actual data for 2008 across all countries that they survey in the Asia Pacific region.
This quarter, BMI include a regional review that looks at the actual and forecast growth rates for premiums – across both major segments. A key insight is that growth in China’s life segment has slowed markedly over the last year or so. Nevertheless, the impact of the Global Financial Crisis was much greater in South Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. For the time being, BMIcontinue to expect that the most rapid growth will take place in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines – where organised savings are at an embryonic state of development. For non-life insurers, the key insight is that price competition has caused penetration (ie: premiums as a percentage of GDP) to fall in many countries. There has been a fall in absolute premiums in some instances.
As was the case in Q1, BMI provide a ranking of the major players in each of the two main segments, as they are seen by the organisation providing the data (which, in practice, is usually the regulator or the trade association). In Thailand, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in H109, in terms of gross written premiums, were Viriyah Insurance, Dhipaya Insurance and Bangkok Insurance, whose market shares were 15.1%, 7.4% and 6.5% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in H109 were AIA, Thai Life and Muang Thai Life, whose market shares were 33.6%, 13.8% and 9.0% respectively. Over time, BMI hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. BMI emphasise though, that a decline in share of gross written premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.
In this report, BMI also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Thailand the largest non-life lines in 2008 were motor CASCO, compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL) and personal accident. These accounted for 49.6%, 10.3% and 9.1% respectively of total non-life premiums. Looking ahead, BMI should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to BMI forecasting process.
BMI estimate total premiums in 2009 of THB309,167mn. This includes non-life premiums of THB107,162mn and life premiums of THB202,004mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be THB510,375mn, THB162,461mn and THB347,914mn respectively. In terms of the key drivers that underpin BMI forecasts, BMI expect non-life penetration to increase from 1.19% in 2009 to 1.33% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$91 per capita to US$187. BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for Thailand is 57.4.
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