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Vietnam Insurance Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 99
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's insurance industry.
A major change in relation to BMI last quarterly report is that their have reviewed all data that is publicly available at the beginning of 2010 in order to ensure that their forecasts for 2009 and this year are reasonable. BMI have been able to include actual data for 2008 across all countries that they survey in the Asia-Pacific region.
This quarter, BMI include a regional review that looks at the actual and forecast growth rates for premiums – across both major segments. A key insight is that growth in China’s life segment has slowed markedly over the last year or so. Nevertheless, the impact of the global financial crisis was much greater in South Korea, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. For the time being, BMI continue to expect that the most rapid growth will take place in countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines – where organised savings are at an embryonic state of development. For non-life insurers, the key insight is that price competition has caused penetration (ie: premiums as a percentage of GDP) to fall in many countries: indeed, there has been a fall in absolute premiums in some instances.
As was the case in Q1, BMI provide a ranking of the major players in each of the two main segments – as they are seen by the organisation providing the data (which is usually the regulator or the trade association). In China, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in H109, in terms of gross written premiums, were Bao Viet, PVI and Bao Minh, whose market shares were 42%, 12% and 12% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in H109 were Prudential, Bao Viet and Manulife, with market shares of 40%, 33% ad 10% respectively. BMI emphasise though that a decline in share of gross written premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.
In this report, BMI also provide a breakdown of the insurance sector by line, from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. Motor vehicle insurance accounted for less than a third of the non-life segment in H109. Shipping/hull insurance was the next largest line, accounting for just over 10% of nonlife premiums.
BMI estimate total premiums in 2009 of VND24,610,383mn. This includes non-life premiums of VND13,500,224mn and life premiums of VND11,110,159mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be VND58,451,796mn, VND27,449,700mn and VND31,002,096mn respectively. In terms of the key drivers that underpin their forecasts, BMI expect non-life penetration to rise from 0.83% in 2009 to 1.01% in 2014, and for life density to increase from US$7.10 per capita to US$17.57. BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating for Vietnam is 44.2.
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