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Analysis and Forecast of China Spandex Industry 2010-2011
China Market Report, April 2010, Pages: 30
In 2009, China's spandex output was 203,000 tons, it is expected to reach 245,000 tons in 2010 with a year-on-year increase 20.7%. The domestic apparent consumption was 201,000 tons in 2009, up 27.27% year-on-year, adding the exports, so the total demand was 229,600 tons in 2009, up 32.56% year-on-year.
Spandex industry has been recovered gradually from 2009, the rising prices of spandex products driven industry’s profitability recovery promptly. In terms of China Chemical Fiber Economic Information’s Index that the price of spandex 40D touched the lowest level of 40,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2009. Since 2010, due to the relative strong demand from downstream textile industry, the price of spandex have soared again, from 48,000yuan / ton at beginning of 2010 up to 56,000-57,000 yuan / ton in Mar 2010, increasing of 16.7%. At April 9, the China Spandex Industry Association reached an agreement that from April 12 the price of spandex would increase 2000-3000 yuan/ton, therefore, the spandex 40D price would rise to 59,000-60,000 yuan / ton. Thus, the price of spandex 40D has increased 50% from the bottom level.
In 2008 and 2009, the investment in fixed assets in spandex industry fell 4.74% and 16.5% respectively. However, as the price of spandex continued to rise, some of the delayed projects are expected to resume, therefore, in the next two years, spandex production capacity pressure may appear again.
The recovery of textile and garment industry led to the operating rate is increasing, as well as the exports of spandex is also maintained in a historical high level, which promoted the strong demand for spandex, and a high operating rates and low inventory.
The new added capacity of spandex in 2010 is limited, the capacity growth is approximately 5%. The export recovery will boost demand for spandex, the demand growth rate from downstream industries is expected to increase over 18%. The growth rate of production capacity is less than demand growth, the spandex industry cycles will keep positive.
But, after 2011, the supply and demand of spandex will be changed, according to incomplete statistics, between the fourth quarter of 2010 to the beginning of 2011, the new added production capacity of spandex is expected to be 34,000 tons, this will put pressure on the market.
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