|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, April 2010, Pages: 80
Business Monitor International's Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's oil and gas industry.
The latest Kuwait Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.68% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 10.665% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.11mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 11.38mn b/d in 2009. It should average 11.66mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 12.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 22.88mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.83mn b/d in 2009. It is set to rise to 27.19mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 14.77mn b/d. This had eased to an estimated 13.44mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 14.51mn b/d by 2014. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 404.6bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 542.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 34.0% growth. Estimated production of 411.9bcm in 2009 should reach 655.4bcm in 2014 (+59.1%), which implies net exports rising to 113.0bcm by the end of the period. Kuwait consumed an estimated 3.95% of the region’s gas in 2009, with its market share forecast at 5.04% by 2014. It contributed 3.32% to estimated 2009 regional gas production and by 2014 will account for 2.95% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
Kuwait’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to have fallen by 1% in 2009, compared with 7.7% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.9% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 303,000b/d in 2009 to 339,000b/d in 2014, lagging the underlying rate of economic expansion. State oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas operations. In spite of the absence of near-term international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is forecast to increase from an estimated 2.59mn b/d in 2009 to 2.90mn b/d in 2014, subject to OPEC quotas. Gas production should reach 19.3bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 13.7bcm in 2009. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 16.0bcm to 27.3bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 8.0bcm.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti oil production of 39.3%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 3.60mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 33.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 403,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to climb to almost 27bcm by the end of the period. With 2009-2019 demand growth of 167.6%, this provides an import requirement rising to more than 16bcm by 2019. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Kuwait now holds ninth place above only Saudi Arabia in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment Ratings, which is a surprising outcome in view of its vast oil and gas wealth. It is three points behind Bahrain and could only mount a challenge if its competitive landscape were to improve. The country’s score suffers from strict government control of the upstream industry, undermining the healthy resource position. The country is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment Ratings, with a few high scores and near-term progress up the rankings a possibility. It is ranked ninth ahead only of Iraq, thanks to excellent country risk factors that fail to counter the highly regulated and largely state-controlled industry. Bahrain is just above it in the regional rankings, and may prove to be within Kuwait’s reach over the next few quarters.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2012
Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Egypt Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011
Iraq Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Oman Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Bahrain Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
|
|
|
|
