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Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 53
Saudi Arabia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's retail industry.
The Q210 Saudi Arabia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$76bn in 2009 to almost US$129bn by 2014. Principal factors behind the forecast growth in Saudi Arabia’s retail sales are: strong underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increasing acceptance of the concept of modern retailing, a youthful population and an enlarged consumer base created by the improved position of women in society.
Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP in 2009 was an estimated US$422.7bn, with growth expected to increase to 2.0% in 2010 as the economy gradually picks up speed. Average annual GDP growth of 2.3% is predicted between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 24.4mn in 2009 to an estimated 27.2mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is predicted to rise by more than 20% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$5,349.
The retail sector benefits from the large number of Muslim tourists visiting the country to take part in the hajj and umrah pilgrimages every year. Sales of gifts and souvenirs in 2008 were estimated to have risen by at least SAR4bn (US$1.1bn) due to shopping by hajj pilgrims, according to a Gulf News report. Increasing urbanisation is also driving retail sales. In 2005, nearly 89% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to more than 90% in 2010. The UN also described more than 57% of the population as economically active in 2005, with this proportion forecast to exceed 59% in 2010 and 66% by 2015. About 38% of the population was in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales in 2005, and the UN forecasts that this will rise to about 45% by 2015. San Francisco-based Gap is among the latest international retailers to enter the market. It plans to open 44 Gap stores (and variations) and 10 Banana Republic stores in Saudi Arabia by 2012.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include overthe counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by just over 76%, from US$0.33bn in 2009 to US$0.59bn by 2014. Automotives sales are forecast to rise by 23.5% by the end of the forecast period, from US$16.5bn to US$21.5bn. Sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$3.8bn in 2009 to US$5.0bn by 2014, a rise of nearly 32%.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$412.28bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$704.94bn. In 2009, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 78.3% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 82.2% by 2014. For Saudi Arabia, its estimated 2009 market share of 18.4% is expected to increase to 20.0% by 2014.]
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