2Q10 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Canada will have 30.1 Million Mobile Subscribers by the End of 2014 with Telus Mobility Taking 28.5% Market Share
- ID: 1225218
- May 2010
- Region: Canada
- 118 Pages
- IE Market Research
Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Canadian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation), and MTS Allstream Inc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Bell Mobility Inc.
Rogers Wireless Inc.
Telus Mobility (part of Telus Corporation)
MTS Allstream Inc.
Other Bell Mobility Inc. Affiliates
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
* Available only for Bell Mobility Inc. and Rogers Wireless Inc.
** Available only for Bell Mobility Inc., Rogers Wireless Inc., and Telus Mobility
Subscriber growth is declining slightly in Canada's mobile operator space
+6.3% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry wide average subscriber growth (YoY) was 6.3% in 4Q.2009, down from 7.8% in 4Q.2008.
- The subscriber growth rate at the largest operator, Rogers Wireless, was 6.9% in 4Q.2009, down from 8.2% in 4Q.2008.
- Telus Mobility's subscriber growth was 6.3% in 4Q.2009, down from 10.1% in 4Q.2008.
Negative ARPU growth across operators
-3.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average ARPU growth (YoY) declined to -3.1% in 4Q.2009, down from 0.2% in 4Q.2008.
- The three largest operators, Rogers Wireless, Bell Mobility, and Telus Mobility, saw their ARPUs decline by -0.6%, -2.4%, and -8.0% (YoY) respectively in 4Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber have started to decline
-3.4% industry average growth in MOU/Sub in 4Q.2009
- The industry average MOU/Sub (Minutes of Use per Subscriber) decreased by -3.4% (YoY) to reach 426 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.
- MOU/Sub at Rogers Wireless, Bell Mobility, and Telus Mobility were 588 minutes, 281 minutes, and 389 minutes per month respectively in 4Q.2009.
Strong EBITDA growth at Rogers Wireless in the latest quarter
+2.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) in Canada was 2.5% in 4Q.2009, down from 3.1% in 4Q.2008.
- EBITDA growth rates at Rogers Wireless, Bell Mobility, and Telus Mobility were 16.4%, -1.8% and -12.0% respectively in 4Q.2009.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 30.1 million in 2014
- Given the data from the latest quarter, our forecasting model predicts that total mobile subscribers in Canada will increase from 23.0 million in 2009 to 30.1 million in 2014.
- We expect that Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber base increase from 8.50 million in 2009 to 11.3 million in 2014.
- Also, we forecast that Bell Mobility will have 8.87 million mobile subscribers and Telus Mobility will have 8.58 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014.
Rogers Wireless will see its subscriber market share increase over the next five years
- Our model predicts that Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada in market shares. Given the latest quarter numbers, we expect that its subscriber market share will increase from 36.9% in 2009 to 37.6% in 2014.
- We expect that Telus Mobility's market share will remain at approximately 28.5% over the next five years.
- On the other hand, we expect Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers to decline from 30.2% in 2009 to 29.4% in 2014.
The overall ARPU level expected to decrease over the next several years
- Our model predicts that the industry will see an overall decrease in operator ARPUs over the next five years.
- Rogers Wireless will continue to enjoy a higher ARPU level than Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility. We expect that Rogers Wireless's monthly ARPU will reach C$ 67 in 2014.
- On the other hand, average ARPU levels at Bell Mobility and Telus Mobility will be approximately C$ 51 and C$ 40 respectively in 2014, according to our model.
Profitability at Rogers Wireless will improve over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will be approximately 45.9% in 2014, down from 46.5% in 2009.
- Our forecasting model predicts that Rogers Wireless will see its EBITDA margin increase from 48.7% in 2009 to 52.9% in 2014.