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2Q10 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Italy will have 93.3 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of TIM Declining to 33%
IE Market Research Corp, May 2010, Pages: 118
Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Italian wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Italy include: Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
Vodafone Group Plc
Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
* Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) and Vodafone Group Plc
** Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
*** Available only for Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM), Vodafone Group Plc, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited
Subscriber growth in Hungary's wireless market is slowing down
+1.0% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average subscriber growth (YoY) was 1.0% in 4Q.2009, down from 1.8% in 4Q.2008. The number of total mobile subscribers in Hungary reached 11.3 million and the wireless penetration rate was 113% in 4Q.2009.
- Subscriber growth (YoY) at Pannon turned negative to -3.2% in 4Q.2009.
- Subscriber growth rate (YoY) at Vodafone declined from 11.6% in 4Q.2008 to 1.2% in 4Q.2009.
ARPUs continue to decline across operators in Hungary
-5.2% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average monthly ARPU declined by -5.2% (YoY) to HUF 4,000 in 4Q.2009.
- T-Mobile's ARPU growth rate (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was -3.1% (down from 2.4% in 4Q.2008).
- ARPU growth rates (YoY) at Pannon and Vodafone were -7.3% and -3.0% respectively in 4Q.2009.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber have declined across operators
-8.9% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2009
- The operator-wide MOU/sub growth (YoY) came in at -8.9% in 4Q.2009, down from 1.8% in 4Q.2008. The industry average MOU/Sub in 4Q.2009 was 153 minutes per month.
- Among the operators, Pannon saw the highest level of network usage in 4Q.2009 at MOU/Sub of 168 minutes per month (down -4.0% YoY). That put Vodafone in the second place with 163 minutes per month (down -9.9% YoY).
- T-Mobile's MOU/Sub also declined by -9.9% (YoY) to reach 137 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.
EBITDA growth at T-Mobile improved significantly in the latest quarter
0% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
- EBITDA growth rate (YoY) at T-Mobile increased from -13.3% in 4Q.2008 to 5.5% in 4Q.2009.
- Pannon (Telenor)'s EBITDA growth remained negative, but it still increased from -15.7% in 4Q.2008 to -8.8% in 4Q.2009.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Hungary will have 12.8 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014
- According to our forecasting model, total mobile subscribers in Hungary will increase from 11.3 million in 2009 to 12.8 million in 2014.
- T-Mobile will continue to be the largest operator in Hungary's wireless market. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 5.12 million in 2009 to about 5.5 million in 2014.
- We also forecast that Pannon (Telenor) will have about 4 million subscribers and Vodafone will have about 3.2 million subscribers by the end of 2014.
Vodafone's subscriber market share in Hungary's wireless market will be increasing over the next five years
- Given the latest quarter data, our model predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will increase from 23.0% in 2009 to 25.5% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we expect that T-Mobile's market share will decrease from 45.2% to about 43% and Pannon's market share will decrease slightly from 31.9% to about 31.5% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.
We expect ARPU levels in Hungary's wireless market to decline from 2009 to 2014
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from approximately HUF 3,800 in 2009 to HUF 3,500 in 2014.
- Vodafone will continue to have higher ARPU levels than T-Mobile and Pannon. Our model predicts that monthly ARPUs at T-Mobile, Pannon, and Vodafone will be approximately HUF 3,120, HUF 3,460 and HUF 4,170 respectively in 2014.
T-Mobile will continue to enjoy higher EBITDA margins than Pannon (Telenor)
- We forecast that the operator-wide average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue; only for Pannon and T-Mobile) will improve from 47.6% in 2009 to 50.3% in 2014.
- T-Mobile will continue to have a higher level of profitability than Pannon. Our model forecasts that T-Mobile's EBITDA margin will be 55.0% in 2014 (up from 50.8% in 2009) while Pannon's EBITDA margin remains at approximately 43% - 44% over the next five years.
- Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM)
- Vodafone Group Plc
- Wind Telecomunicazioni SpA
- Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited