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United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 59
United Arab Emirates Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' retail industry.
Q210 UAE Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated US$107.26bn in 2009 to US$150.52bn by 2014. Key factors behind the forecast are strong underlying economic growth, increasing household consumption, growing acceptance of modern retailing concepts and expatriate wealth.
The UAE’s nominal GDP in 2009 was US$229.8bn, with last year’s 3.2% decline expected to turn into growth of 2.8% in 2010 as the economy begins to recover. The authors predict average annual GDP growth of 3.0% between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 4.7mn in 2009 to an estimated 5.5mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 31.0% by the end of the forecast period to US$64,527. Average household spending power in the UAE stands at US$14,400 per annum, according to property consultants Colliers International. Emirati households account for the lion’s share of this spending, with an average of US$23,000, while Western, other Arab and Asian households have annual spending power of US$19,500, US$13,500 and US$10,000 respectively.
While Emiratis actively contributed to retail sales, the buying power of the country’s expatriate residents was the major source of success, a study by Indian research firm RNCOS said. Tourism is also a massive factor in stimulating retail growth, with the UAE expecting more than 11mn tourists every year by 2010. Growing urbanisation is also a factor in the buoyancy of the retail sector. Abu Dhabi in particular is highly urbanised, with the Urban Planning Council (UPC) projecting that Abu Dhabi City’s population will rise to 1.3mn by 2013. In 2005, 85.5% of the UAE’s population was classified by the UN as urban and this is forecast to increase to 86.3% by 2010.
The UN describes 73% of the UAE population in 2005 as economically active, forecast to rise to 78.6% by 2015. In 2005, just over 30% of the population was in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales, and this is expected to hit 56% by 2015.
Retail sub-sectors are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by almost 75%, from US$0.27bn in 2009 to US$0.46bn by 2014. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by 59%, from US$9.7bn to US$15.4bn, during the forecast period. Sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$2.6bn in 2009 to US$3.7bn by 2014, a rise of 40%.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$412.28bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$704.94bn. In 2009, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 78.3% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 82.2% by 2014. For the UAE, the estimated 2009 market share of 26.0% is expected to reduce to 23.3% by 2014.
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