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Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
Business Monitor International, March 2010, Pages: 67
Business Monitor International's Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Gabon's oil and gas industry.
The new Gabon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.41% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 2.06% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.57mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.63mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.08mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.77mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.64mn b/d. It is set to rise to 11.83mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 4.83mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.07mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 7.75mn b/d by 2014.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 123bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 194bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 125bcm in 2009 to 191bcm by the end of the period. Gabon is neither a significant regional producer nor consumer of gas. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$60.70 per barrel (bbl), a 35.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
In 2010, BMI is now forecasting premium unleaded gasoline prices to average US$97.00, up from US$70.22/bbl in 2009. We are assuming an average global jet fuel price for 2010 of US$97.58/bbl, compared with US$70.63 in 2009. For gasoil, the 2010 price estimate is for an average of US$97.40/bbl, compared with US$70.50 in 2009. The FY10 naphtha price average, estimated at US$81.58/bbl compares with US$59.07 in FY09.
Gabon’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 0.9% in 2009, compared with 4.5% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.0% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 13,560b/d in 2009 to 16,980b/d in 2014. State oil company Société Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from an estimated 255,000b/d in 2009 to 245,000b/d in 2014. Gas production should reach 1bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 0.1bcm in 2009. Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports but no surplus gas to export. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Gabon oil and gas liquids production of 13.3%, with volumes peaking at 265,000b/d in 2010, before falling steadily to 221,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 59.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 22,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 1bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 900% between 2009 and 2019, there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Gabon now occupies second place in BMI’s updated and enlarged Upstream Business Environment Rating, just behind Libya. It is in no position to move higher over the medium term, and the presence of Nigeria, Angola and Algeria below poses a threat. The county’s score benefits from healthy gas output growth prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is fragile but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. The country is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment Rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It is ranked second from last, ahead only of Equatorial Guinea, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.
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