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2Q10 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014: Portugal will have 17.9 Million Mobile Subscribers in 2014 with Market Share of Vodafone Increasing to 36.4%
IE Market Research Corp, May 2010, Pages: 118
Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Portuguese wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2011. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A., Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A., and Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A.
Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.
Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - December 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
* Available only for TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A. and Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Portugal's mobile operator space
+5.6 industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2009
- The operator-wide subscriber growth (YoY) in Portugal's wireless market in 4Q.2009 was 5.6%, down from 10.2% in 4Q.2008.
- Optimus was the leader in subscriber growth in the country in 4Q.2009 with a 7.6% growth rate (down from 10.3% in 4Q.2008).
- The largest operator, TMN, saw its subscriber growth rate decline from 10.9% in 4Q.2008 to 4.4% in 4Q.2009.
- Vodafone Portugal's subscriber growth also declined from 9.3% in 4Q.2008 to 5.8% in 4Q.2009.
Negative ARPU growth has still continued across operators in the last few years
-9.0% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average monthly ARPU level dropped by -9.0% (YoY) to reach €16.12 per month in 4Q.2009.
- Vodafone's ARPU level remains higher than those of TMN and Optimus. Vodafone's monthly ARPU was €17.40 in 4Q.2009, down -7.4% (YoY).
- Double-digit negative ARPU growth continues at Optimus. Its ARPU growth rate (YoY) in 4Q.2009 was -11.2%.
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
+6.6% industry average MOU growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry MOU/Sub (Minutes of User per Subscriber) was 129 minutes per month in 4Q.2009, up +6.6% from 4Q.2008.
- Optimus's MOU/Sub increased by +4.6% to reach 137 minutes per month in 4Q.2009.
- MOU/Sub growth rates at TMN and Vodafone were 7.1% and 6.4% respectively in 4Q.2009.
Vodafone's EBITDA declined significantly in the latest quarter
-17.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2009
- The industry average EBITDA growth (YoY) was -17.6% in 4Q.2009, down from 6.4% in 4Q.2008.
- EBITDA growth rates (YoY) at Vodafone Portugal and Optimus were negative in 4Q.2009 at -35.6% and -5.4% respectively.
- On the other hand, TMN's EBITDA growth was positive at 0.6% in 4Q.2009, up from -2.4% in 4Q.2008.
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total mobile subscribers in Portugal to reach 17.9 million in 2014
- We forecast that the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Portugal will increase from 16.6 million in 2009 to 17.9 million in 2014.
- We think that the largest operators - TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus - will see their subscriber base expand over the next five years. We expect TMN's subscriber base to increase from 7.25 million in 2009 to 7.6 million in 2014.
- Also, our model predicts that Vodafone Portugal and Optimus will have approximately 6.5 million and 3.8 million respectively by the end of 2014.
TMN's market share will decline slightly over the next five years
- Although TMN will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Portugal, we expect that its subscriber market share will decline from 43.7% in 2009 to 42.5% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we expect that market shares of Vodafone Portugal and Optimus will be increasing over the next five years to reach 36.4% and 21.1% respectively in 2014.
ARPUs will continue to decline from 2010 to 2014
- All of the three wireless carriers will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from €16.28 in 2009 to €14.50 in 2014.
- Among the operators, Vodafone will continue to have higher ARPUs than TMN and Optimus. We expect that monthly ARPUs at TMN, Vodafone Portugal, and Optimus will also decline to approximately €13.90, €15.80, and €13.40 respectively in 2014.
TMN enjoys higher EBITDA margin than Vodafone Portugal and Optimus
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/service revenue) will remain in the range of 39% - 41% over the next five years.
- The operator with the highest level of profitability will be TMN. Our model forecasts that TMN's EBITDA margin will be above 50% over the next several years (compared to approximately 36% at Vodafone Portugal and 26% at Optimus).
- TMN -Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais S.A.
- Vodafone Portugal, Comunicações Pessoais, S.A.
- Optimus Telecomunicações, S.A.